Pétrole : hausse des cours sur fond de tensions avec l’Iran

La persistance des tensions géopolitiques au Moyen-Orient continue de secouer les marchés mondiaux de l’énergie et des changes. Alors que le trafic dans le détroit d’Ormuz demeure verrouillé par l’Iran, les investisseurs évaluent l’impact d’une telle situation sur l’inflation et la politique monétaire de la Réserve fédérale américaine.

Le blocage du détroit d’Ormuz et l’impasse diplomatique

Les cours du brut continuent de se renforcer en raison d’un blocage durable du détroit d’Ormuz, un point de passage stratégique par lequel transitait un cinquième du brut mondial avant le conflit. Téhéran pose des conditions strictes pour sa réouverture, exigeant que Washington accepte des exigences qui restent au cœur de vives divergences entre les deux pays, sur fond d’exigences incompatibles de Washington et Téhéran.

Dans le même temps, l’armée américaine a annoncé mardi avoir tiré sur un navire battant pavillon du Panama qui tentait de s’approcher d’un port iranien en violation du blocus instauré par Washington. Oil extended gains as Iran rejected talks with the US and a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive.

«Je doute fort que quiconque sache réellement ce qui se joue dans les négociations entre les États-Unis et l’Iran. Investisseurs et médias tentent de reconstituer un puzzle diplomatique à partir d’indices glanés sur les réseaux sociaux, de déclarations politiques et de commentaires d’intermédiaires»

Stephen Innes, stratégiste du cabinet Quintex Intel

Réactions des marchés pétroliers et incertitudes sur les taux

Sur les marchés des matières premières, la référence mondiale progresse. Le baril de Brent de la mer du Nord a progressé de 0,55% à 89,40 dollars, tandis que le prix du baril de WTI nord-américain gagnait 0,69% à 83,77 dollars, vers 02H05 GMT. De son côté, global benchmark Brent rose 1.4% to $83.65 a barrel amid tensions in the Middle East and a lack of clarity on a deal to reopen the crucial waterway, even so, oil is down about 5% for the week, having declined earlier on expectations for an agreement between the US and Iran.

Or : Vers une nouvelle hausse proche des 4 700 dollars l’once

Cette fermeté des prix énergétiques ravive les craintes inflationnistes. Treasury futures edged lower as higher energy prices revived concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated, and the Treasury 10-year yield held at 4.68% after climbing seven basis points during the US session. Government bonds of similar tenor in Japan, Australia and New Zealand all fell, while S&P 500 Index futures were little changed after the gauge slipped for a second day, having reached a record high earlier in the week.

Elsewhere, Brent crude rose 0.5 per cent to around $84 a barrel, extending a rally of more than 5 per cent over the previous three sessions, while Treasuries gave back some of Friday’s gains, pushing the 10-year yield up one basis point to 4.66 per cent, and the dollar strengthened against most of its Group-of-10 peers. Monday’s gains followed weeks of volatility as investors questioned whether elevated valuations and billions of dollars in AI spending would generate adequate returns, with focus now shifting to US consumer price data due this week after Friday’s jobs report eased concerns the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates soon.

États-Unis : frappes contre deux lanceurs iraniens sur l’île de Larak

MSCI’s global equities index pared earlier losses on Wednesday after economic data showed US inflation was high but in line with expectations and oil prices rose as Iran and the United States exchanged strikes. The dollar and US Treasury yields were lower as US consumer inflation rose at its fastest pace since April 2023, and the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index in the 12 months through May. Traders maintained bets that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady after its June 17 meeting and priced in a nearly 43% probability of a 25-basis-point hike versus a 32% chance rates would stay unchanged by December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Steve Kolano, directeur des investissements chez Integrated Partners, a déclaré que ce rapport ne contribuait en rien à réduire la probabilité d’une éventuelle hausse des taux à un moment ou un autre de l’année, dans un contexte de prix de l’énergie élevés et de conflit non résolu avec l’Iran.

Oil prices rose again after US President Donald Trump wrote in a social media post that Iran would “pay the price” after taking too long to negotiate and Tehran said it would reassess its diplomatic engagement with Washington after overnight tit-for-tat strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had carried out missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for American strikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran : Le Régime Résiste aux Frappes des États-Unis et d’Israël

Les répercussions sur les marchés asiatiques et la monnaie

En Asie, la prudence domine à l’approche de la publication d’indicateurs d’inflation clés aux États-Unis. The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest gauge of global equities, rose 0.1 per cent, its seventh advance in the past eight sessions, while MSCI’s Asian gauge gained 0.4 per cent, tracking a Wall Street rally on Friday that sent the S&P 500 Index to an all-time high. Futures contracts indicated modest gains for US gauges, while Europe was set for a flat start to the week, and European stocks were set to edge lower after closing at an all-time high, while Asian equities were little changed.

Financial and metal stocks are seeing some buzz from delivery-based buying and short covering, while realty, pharma, and select Defence names might face profit-taking. Midcap IT stocks are doing better than big names right now, and even with a dip in overall market optimism, more than 60% of stocks are trading above their long-term averages (up from 50% last month), showing some resilience despite global worries.