La transition énergétique et la diminution de l’emprise minière : une étude néerlandaise optimiste

The energy transition would lead to a decrease in the influence of extractive industries, counter-intuitively assert the Dutch researchers from the universities of Leiden and Delft (“The energy transition will require much less mining than the current fossil system“, Joule n° 7/11, November 2023). Once coal extraction disappears, only metallurgical mining will remain, of a much smaller scale than that of coal, and especially much smaller than the forecasts announcing an increase in the extraction of metals necessary for the transition – the famous “rare earth metals” – which have fueled fears of scarcity and denounced the increasing influence of extractive industries (nickel, manganese, lithium, cobalt…) with destructive consequences for the environment and human rights.

The outlook for metal consumption has so far been based on that of the World Bank, dating from 2020, and on that of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its report “Net Zero by 2050 only“, published in 2021. The first built its scenario from one of its own studies on “the role of metals in a low-carbon future”, dating from 2017. And the second was inspired by the first.

The Dutch study, unlike those of institutions accustomed to the non-recyclable nature of hydrocarbons, achieves this optimistic result by taking into account the improvement in the recycling of the stock of metals accumulated over the past decade, which should continue to grow until 2040, according to the researchers.

However, this study assesses the rest of the supply-demand balance unfortunately by reusing the old AIE metal demand assumptions, which would require a minimum update, or even a change of software since they ignore the greater chance of reduction in mining influence: the reduction of consumption, guided by substitution technologies in production, transportation, storage, and electricity consumption.

The madness of rare earth metals

Admittedly, nothing is done without metals in wind turbines or photovoltaic panels, in transport by very high voltage lines, in batteries, and in electric cars. But innovation in metal consumption is constant. It is true that this industrial facet of the engineering world is not intuitive for non-initiates in the academic, political, or financial world.

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