Global Fertilizer Supply Threatened as Iran Tensions Escalate
By [Your Name], International Editor
OTTAWA – Rising tensions in the Middle East are casting a shadow over global food security, with a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatening to disrupt fertilizer supplies and drive up prices for farmers worldwide. The critical waterway, handling roughly one-third of global trade in key fertilizer nutrients like urea, nitrogen, sulphur and phosphates, is facing increased instability due to the ongoing conflict in the region.
Iran is currently threatening vessels attempting passage through the Strait, raising concerns about the reliable transport of these essential agricultural inputs. While factories in the Gulf region continue to produce nitrogen fertilizers, delivering them to farmers is becoming increasingly problematic, according to recent reports.
The timing couldn’t be worse. As spring approaches in North America, farmers are preparing to plant crops within the next 30 to 60 days, creating a surge in demand. “The entire world is competing for the limited supply that’s available,” explained Kreg Ruhl, vice-president of crop nutrients for Growmark. “The timing is pretty detrimental.”
Canada, the world’s largest potash producer – accounting for 32.8 per cent, or 76.1 million tonnes, of global production in 2024 – isn’t immune to the potential fallout. While the country boasts significant potash reserves, it relies on imports for other crucial fertilizer components.
“Obviously, there’s nitrogen and other ingredients that we need, nutrients that we don’t produce in Canada,” said Ryan Flitton, co-owner of Twin Valley Farms in Ontario. “So, in order to make that perfect product to help farmers, you need more than just potash.”
The issue is further complicated by the fact that much of the fertilizer produced in Canada is destined for export markets. “What we produce, we don’t consume, but we actually tend to consume things that are imported,” Flitton added. “And that’s why it’s a bit of a challenge.”
Michael Bourque, President and CEO of Fertilizer Canada, emphasized the interconnectedness of the global market. “As a globally traded commodity, any impact on global fertilizer production can be felt throughout the market,” he stated. “Ongoing instability in the region also has the potential to disrupt global trade flows, particularly through key corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz.”
The situation adds another layer of complexity for Canadian farmers already navigating economic headwinds. Farmers are bracing for potential price increases, with some reports indicating urea prices could reach $1,200 per tonne.
“Rumours are we’re up at $1,200 a ton for urea. So, if you haven’t bought your fertilizer by now, because we’re within a month of go time, you’re going to be in trouble,” said Philip Rumley, a grain producer at North Rumley Farm in southern Alberta.
Experts suggest the impact may extend beyond fertilizer costs. Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph, noted potential disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait, including liquefied natural gas to Eastern Canada. He also indicated possible, albeit small, increases in freight rates.
These challenges come on the heels of previous trade uncertainties. In December 2025, the United States threatened tariffs on Canadian fertilizer, a move that initially saw a 25 per cent tariff reduced to 10 per cent.
Despite these hurdles, Nutrien, the world’s largest provider of crop inputs and services, anticipates potash sales volumes between 14.1 million and 14.8 million tonnes this year.
Farmers are advised to consult with local agricultural retailers for the latest information on fertilizer supply in their area, according to Fertilizer Canada. The situation remains fluid, and its long-term impact on global food production and prices will depend on the duration and escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
