Iran Grapples with Uncertainty After Supreme Leader’s Death, Potential for Increased Religious Crackdown
TEHRAN, Iran – The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has plunged the country into a period of intense political maneuvering and uncertainty, raising concerns about the future of religious minorities, particularly Christians. The U.S. and Israel’s recent attack that killed Khamenei and other leaders has left a power vacuum, with several figures vying for control of the Islamic Republic.
Currently, an interim leadership council comprised of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi is steering the country. Arafi, a member of the Guardian Council and a close confidant of the late Supreme Leader, is drawing particular scrutiny.
“He has had a particular interest in Christianity, which he calls a rival and a competition to Islam,” explained Iranian dissident Shay Khatiri, vice president and senior fellow at the Yorktown Institute. “And he has expressed worries about Christian converts and underground churches more than your average cleric.”
Khatiri warned that if Arafi were to become the next Supreme Leader, the situation for Christians in Iran could deteriorate significantly, potentially surpassing the level of repression experienced under Khamenei.
Despite facing persecution, Christianity has reportedly seen substantial growth within Iran. Khatiri estimates that up to 3 million Iranians have converted to Christianity, practicing their faith in clandestine churches.
The potential for instability extends beyond religious freedom. Khatiri cautioned that the end of U.S. bombing could trigger a catastrophic civil war involving Iran’s 90 million citizens. He envisions a scenario where the country could be dismembered, with various factions potentially seeking assistance from foreign powers like Russia, China, Turkey, Israel, or Arab states.
“You could have a scenario that Iran is dismembered, with some portion of the territory held by remnants of the regime and even asking for foreign militaries…to enter to help them,” Khatiri said. “Imagine a balkanized country…with each fighting for a piece of Persia.”
The situation remains fluid as Iran enters a 40-day period of mourning following Khamenei’s death. President Pezeshkian has condemned the killing of the Supreme Leader as a “great crime,” according to his office.