U.S. Munitions Stockpiles Strained by Conflicts, Raising Concerns About Future Readiness
WASHINGTON – Intense military operations in Iran and elsewhere are depleting U.S. stockpiles of precision-guided munitions, prompting concerns about the nation’s ability to respond to future crises, particularly in regions like East Asia. The situation has spurred calls for increased production and a more diversified approach to munitions development.
The recent surge in munitions expenditure comes after previous shortfalls experienced following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when U.S. and allied stockpiles were significantly drawn down. While the U.S. retains substantial overall capacity, the current rate of use is creating risk, according to defense officials. President Donald Trump acknowledged the issue following a meeting with industry leaders, directing them to “quadruple” production of high-end munitions.
“There is no single reason for this situation, and there is no simple way out of it,” explained Jerry McGinn, director of the Center for the Industrial Base at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and a former Pentagon acquisition official. “Building magazine depth…is critical, but it is equally crucial to build magazine breadth.”
For years, munitions funding has been vulnerable in Defense Department budget battles, often sacrificed to address shortfalls in other programs. Funding for missile and munitions programs fluctuated by more than 50 percent between 2001 and 2021, creating instability for both government program managers and defense contractors.
Recent efforts to address the issue include the U.S. Army awarding nine production contracts in late 2023 for 155mm artillery shell production, aiming for a monthly output of 100,000 shells by August 2025. However, production has fallen short of that goal due to supply chain bottlenecks and other challenges.
The cyclical nature of munitions purchases also hinders consistent production. Companies struggle to build capacity without stable, long-term contracts. Even with increased focus on precision-guided munitions, procurement of Joint Direct Attack Munitions saw significant drops in budgets for 2023-2025.
The high cost and complexity of “exquisite” munitions – such as Tomahawk missiles (over $2 million each) and Patriot missiles (over $4 million each) – further complicate the issue. Production relies on a complex supply chain of materials, components, and systems providers. Bottlenecks anywhere in this chain can disrupt production.
To address these challenges, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg formed the Munitions Acceleration Council in 2025, aiming to dramatically increase production of 12 key systems over three years. This initiative led to framework agreements with Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and L3Harris, intended to create a stable demand signal and boost production rates. However, these agreements require matching Congressional appropriations.
Congress has appropriated over $25 billion for munitions in the fiscal year 2026 reconciliation law, but officials say this remains less than the Pentagon’s requests. Multiyear procurement authority has been granted for some munitions, but not all those being used in the current conflict in Iran.
McGinn emphasizes the need for a broader approach, including the development of lower-cost munitions and increased reliance on second sourcing. The recent introduction of the Low-Cost Unmanned Combat Attack System, reverse-engineered from Iranian drones, demonstrates a shift towards more affordable options. The Department of Defense’s Drone Dominance Program is also focused on fielding low-cost, one-way attack drones at scale.
Efforts to improve producibility, such as the Air Force’s Family of Affordable Mass Munitions program, aim to develop missiles with unit costs in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, rather than millions. Co-production agreements with allies, like Poland’s agreement to produce Patriot missile launchers, and the creation of a new Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Armaments Cooperation, are also seen as crucial steps.
Addressing these challenges requires sustained investment, multiyear procurement authority from Congress, and integration of new munitions into military operations. Industry investment and a focus on expanding the munitions supply chain are also essential to building long-term resilience.
