A New Scramble for Africa: Resources, Regional Blocs and the Path to Industrialization
By Daniel Makokera
A quiet but significant shift is underway in Africa. It’s not marked by the overt colonialism of the 19th century, but by a new kind of competition – a scramble for the minerals essential to the global green transition. Lithium, cobalt, graphite, manganese, platinum group metals and rare earth elements – the building blocks of electric vehicles, renewable energy systems and digital infrastructure – are at the heart of this renewed interest.
The continent, which led global production of cobalt, copper, gold and platinum group metals in 2024, is rapidly expanding its lithium output, according to recent reports. This wealth of resources presents a pivotal moment for Africa, one that could either anchor its structural transformation or reinforce existing patterns of dependency.
Unlike the colonial era, Africa today possesses regional economic blocs with the potential to shape outcomes. However, whether these blocs will act strategically, collectively, or fall prey to competitive pressures remains to be seen.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is at the epicenter of this mineral rush. The Democratic Republic of Congo dominates cobalt production, a critical component in rechargeable batteries. Zimbabwe holds significant lithium deposits, while South Africa controls vast reserves of platinum and manganese. Zambia remains central to copper supply. Despite this concentration of strategic resources, value addition remains limited, with raw exports continuing to dominate.
If SADC member states can coordinate policies – harmonizing royalty regimes and developing cross-border battery precursor industries – they could significantly increase their negotiating power. Failure to do so risks a race to the bottom, attracting foreign capital at the expense of long-term, sustainable development.
West Africa’s Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) faces a different challenge. Guinea’s bauxite, Ghana’s lithium prospects, and widespread gold reserves position the region as a mineral heavyweight. However, governance instability and political fragmentation threaten to undermine these opportunities. Without regulatory harmonization, multinational corporations may exploit policy gaps, engaging with individual states rather than the bloc as a whole.
Further east, the East African Community (EAC) is emerging as a source of graphite and rare earth elements. Its progress in customs integration and common market protocols offers a foundation for coordinated industrial policy, but extending this framework to include strategic mineral processing and regional manufacturing is crucial.
The African Union’s African Mining Vision provides a blueprint for resource-based industrialization, but visions require enforcement. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a platform to transform mineral extraction into continental value chains. However, alignment between regional blocs and continental strategy is essential to prevent AfCFTA from becoming simply a trade corridor for raw materials.
This new scramble is largely contractual, unfolding through memoranda of understanding, infrastructure financing agreements, and strategic partnership summits. Europe is seeking supply chain security, China is securing long-term offtake agreements, and the United States and Gulf states are increasing their engagement. While not inherently exploitative, the absence of coordination could see Africa once again supplying raw materials while importing finished products.
Regional blocs must move beyond declarations, establishing common mineral pricing principles, mandatory regional beneficiation targets, transparent contract registries, and sovereign mineral funds to capture intergenerational value. Infrastructure corridors must be designed to serve industrialization, not merely extraction.
The stakes are clear: critical minerals could be the key to Africa’s structural transformation, or they could entrench dependency under a greener banner. The question is whether Africa’s regional blocs will act as passive gateways for extraction, or as strategic architects of a new industrial era. History is watching.
