Uganda’s Ruling Party Recaptures Ground in Buganda Region After Years of Opposition Surge
KAMPALA, Uganda – Uganda’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), led by President Yoweri Museveni, has significantly curtailed the political dominance of the National Unity Platform (NUP) in the historically pivotal Buganda region, according to recent election results and analysis of political maneuvering. For five years, from 2021, NUP, led by Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine, had enjoyed considerable support in Buganda, a region encompassing a significant portion of Uganda’s population and economic activity.
The 2021 election saw NUP capitalize on a unique set of circumstances, including COVID-19 lockdowns that hampered traditional campaigning methods for the NRM. Restrictions limited Museveni’s ability to hold large rallies and directly engage with voters, while simultaneously impacting the NRM’s older, more vulnerable cadre base. This resulted in NUP securing 55 of Buganda’s parliamentary seats, leaving the NRM with less than 25.
However, the NRM responded with a concerted effort to regain lost ground. A key strategy involved the formation of the “Buganda on Museveni” pressure group, spearheaded by Robert Migadde Ndugwa, a Member of Parliament for Buvuma County, and financially supported by senior ministers Haruna Kasolo and Attorney General Kiryowa Kiwanuka.
Kasolo’s subsequent appointment as NRM chairman for Buganda last September proved crucial. He embarked on a series of meetings and rallies across the region, actively soliciting feedback from party members and addressing concerns. This approach contrasted sharply with previous campaigns and signaled a willingness to listen to grassroots voices.
“We needed to understand why we were losing support,” explained a senior NRM official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Kasolo’s focus on direct engagement was a game-changer.”
A critical element of the NRM’s strategy involved persuading independent candidates who had lost party primaries to withdraw and support the official NRM flagbearers. Kiwanuka Kiryowa played a key role in these negotiations, culminating in a private meeting between compliant candidates and President Museveni. This consolidation of support minimized internal competition and allowed NRM candidates to focus on challenging NUP.
The NRM also prioritized increased interaction between Museveni and NRM MPs who had previously won seats in Buganda, aiming to bolster morale and address anxieties about NUP’s continued influence. Many within the NRM had become hesitant, fearing the momentum of Kyagulanyi’s movement.
The results of the recent elections reflect this strategic shift. While Kyagulanyi’s NUP still secured a plurality of votes in Buganda, Museveni significantly improved his performance, winning outright in 13 districts including Kiboga (61%), Mubende (71%), and Rakai (67%). In districts where he didn’t win, Museveni’s vote share increased substantially compared to 2021, including gains in Kampala (45%) and Wakiso (35%).
Furthermore, the NRM secured a majority of parliamentary seats in Buganda, winning 53 compared to NUP’s 41. This victory ensures the NRM will once again lead the Buganda caucus in Parliament, a position previously held by the opposition.
The success of the NRM’s campaign in Buganda is seen as a significant political win for Museveni, who has been in power since 1986. Analysts suggest the strategy could be replicated in other regions where the NRM has faced challenges.
“The experiences of Musevenists successfully wooing over previously hostile regions like Lango, Acholi, and West Nile demonstrate that regaining voter trust is possible,” noted Dr. Sabiti Makara, a political science professor at Makerere University. “The grievances in Buganda are less deeply rooted than those in the north, making reconciliation potentially easier.”
The NRM’s success also highlights the importance of strong regional leadership and effective mobilization strategies. Haruna Kasolo’s role as chairman for Buganda was widely praised within the party, and his close relationship with key NRM officials, including Deputy Secretary General Rose Namayanja, facilitated the smooth flow of resources and coordination.
Looking ahead, the NRM faces the challenge of sustaining this momentum. Analysts emphasize the need for improved service delivery and consistent engagement with young people, who remain a key demographic for Kyagulanyi’s NUP. The party’s ability to address these concerns will be crucial in solidifying its position in Buganda and across Uganda.
