Trump’s Iran Policy Faces Mounting Challenges as War Risks Escalation
By Bruce Wolpe
WASHINGTON – Donald Trump’s assertive approach to Iran is encountering increasing headwinds, raising concerns about a prolonged conflict and its wider ramifications for global stability. While the former president portrays a narrative of control and swift victory, a growing chorus of analysts and officials suggest a more complex and precarious reality is unfolding.
The current tensions, escalating since the beginning of March 2026, center on Iran’s ballistic missiles, naval capabilities, and regional proxies, with the ultimate goal, according to Trump, being regime change. However, this ambition is proving difficult to achieve, and the costs are mounting.
“Victory for Iran will be if they’re still standing after Israel and the US finish their operation,” Axios’ Barak Ravid recently observed, distilling the core challenge facing the US and its allies. “If the regime still stands, Iran won. That’s it.”
The situation is further complicated by the economic fallout. Concerns about stagflation are gripping Wall Street, with the war inducing slower economic growth, higher inflation, and wage stagnation. The impact is particularly acute in the energy sector, with oil prices spiking and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump downplayed these concerns, claiming “short-term oil prices…will drop rapidly,” but the reality on the ground paints a different picture.
Adding to the internal pressures, reports suggest a divergence of opinion within the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance, previously a vocal critic of “forever wars,” has remained conspicuously quiet on the issue, with sources indicating he “just opposes” the current course of action. Trump himself acknowledged a philosophical difference with Vance, stating he was “maybe less enthusiastic about going” into Iran.
The potential for broader regional instability is also a significant worry. The United States Studies Centre notes that Iranian agents previously attempted to assassinate Trump and other senior US officials, highlighting the high stakes involved.
Trump has repeatedly asserted his ability to dictate terms, even suggesting he would personally select Iran’s next leader, mirroring a strategy he claims to have employed in Venezuela. However, finding Iranian counterparts willing to collaborate with this plan has proven elusive.
Looking ahead, a potential off-ramp for Trump may lie in his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 31. Avoiding a prolonged conflict while engaging with China could be crucial for mitigating the broader geopolitical risks.
The situation remains fluid and unpredictable. While Trump projects confidence, the cracks are beginning to show, raising questions about the sustainability of his current strategy and the potential for further escalation.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
