Hezbollah Signals Restraint as Clashes with Israel Escalate
Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah’s recent rocket and drone attacks on Israel, ending months of relative calm along the northern border, appear to be a calculated signal of support for Iran rather than a full-scale commitment to war, according to analysts and officials. The exchanges, which began Monday, follow a recent escalation in tensions triggered by an operation by Israel against Iran over the weekend.
While the attacks represent a significant shift, they have been limited in scope compared to previous engagements. Rather than unleashing its vast arsenal, Hezbollah has fired a relatively small number of rockets and drones, with longer-range projectiles toward Tel Aviv only beginning Tuesday. This measured pace has led observers to believe the group is calibrating its involvement.
“That was them signaling [to Tehran], that ‘we’re still your proxy, but we’re going to do the bare minimum,’” said Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum.
According to estimates from the Alma Research and Education Center, which analyzes security challenges on Israel’s northern borders, Hezbollah possesses an estimated 25,000 rockets and missiles – largely short and medium range – along with roughly 1,000 suicide drones. The group also boasts a formidable manpower of up to 100,000 regular and reserve operatives, including 5,000 fighters in the elite Radwan Force, described by Alma as “the core of the ground offensive force.”
Sarit Zehavi, founder and president of Alma, said Hezbollah’s decision to join the conflict came as no surprise, stating, “We knew that once they got the orders from Iran, they would join.”
Israeli officials have acknowledged some surprise at the ranges involved in the recent attacks. A senior official told Channel 13 that Israel “didn’t think they would fire at these ranges.”
Despite the restraint, the attacks are causing disruption. Residents of northern Israeli communities have faced near-constant rocket and drone alerts, straining daily life.
“The communities next to the border have zero time to get to the bomb shelter,” Zehavi said. “It will be a challenge to manage life in this atmosphere.”
The concurrent attacks by Iran and Hezbollah on Wednesday, including sirens sounding in central Israel due to an Iranian ballistic missile and rockets launched by Hezbollah, raised questions about coordination. However, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated they had no intelligence indicating direct coordination between the two.
Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, emphasized that Hezbollah’s offensive is not enough to significantly alter the current military exchange between Israel and Iran. He noted that Israel utilizes different air defense systems to counter threats from Hezbollah and Iran, with Iron Dome and David’s Sling intercepting Hezbollah’s short- and medium-range rockets, while the Arrow system counters Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles.
The Lebanese government has condemned Hezbollah’s military operations as “illegal acts,” with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam calling for the group to confine its role to the political realm. This stance, according to Roman, provides an opening for Beirut to formally proscribe Hezbollah’s armed wing, a requirement following the 2024 war.
“Hezbollah’s attack gave Beirut a reason to say we are now outlawing all militant Hezbollah non-state activity,” Roman said, adding that it also signals to Israel that the Lebanese government is not involved in Hezbollah activity.
Over 70 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.
Analysts suggest Hezbollah may be attempting to preserve its long-range artillery and precision-guided munitions, fearing retaliation from Israeli jets. Roman also suggested the possibility of Hezbollah shifting its attacks to Western countries, pointing to the group’s history of carrying out terror attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets in Europe and elsewhere.
Despite the damage sustained in recent conflicts, Kuperwasser cautioned against underestimating Hezbollah’s capabilities. He emphasized the need for continued Israeli operations in Lebanon, particularly north of the Litani River, where Hezbollah maintains strongholds.
The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation. Israel’s response to Hezbollah is being closely watched by other Iranian-backed groups in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi militias.
