Uganda Navigates Shifting Global Economic Landscape, Eyes Regional Trade for Resilience
KAMPALA, Uganda – As global economic headwinds intensify, Uganda finds itself at a critical juncture, balancing recent growth with mounting international uncertainties. From escalating geopolitical tensions to a retreat from multilateral trade agreements, the East African nation is recalibrating its economic strategy, increasingly focusing on regional integration and domestic resource mobilization.
The global outlook remains subdued. Projections from various institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, estimate global growth at between 2.7% and 3.3% in 2026 and 2027, hampered by weak investment and persistent structural challenges. This slowdown is particularly concerning for open economies like Uganda, heavily reliant on commodity markets, capital flows, and external financing.
However, Uganda has, for now, bucked the trend. The country has experienced economic growth exceeding 6% fueled by robust coffee exports, rising remittances from its diaspora, elevated gold prices, and burgeoning investment in its nascent oil and gas sector. This positive performance is underpinned by prudent macroeconomic management, with the Bank of Uganda successfully maintaining price stability and limiting foreign exchange volatility – a notable achievement compared to other African nations like Ghana, which defaulted on its debt in 2022.
“Uganda’s resilience is commendable, but it’s crucial to understand that this isn’t immunity,” explains Jibran Qureishi, Head of Africa Research at Standard Bank Group, who will be speaking at the upcoming Stanbic Bank Uganda Economic Forum on February 12, 2026. “The question isn’t just how well Uganda is doing today, but how sustainable that performance will be in the face of escalating global risks.”
Those risks are multifaceted. Uganda remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the US dollar and disruptions to global supply chains, as evidenced by Western restrictions on Chinese exports in 2023 that triggered retaliatory controls on critical minerals. The country’s suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2024 further underscores the shift away from multilateralism towards a more fragmented, bloc-based global order.
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Despite these challenges, Uganda is actively seeking opportunities within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Exporters are already leveraging the AfCFTA to expand their reach, reduce costs, and lessen dependence on distant markets. This regional focus is seen as a strategic imperative for achieving scale and mitigating vulnerability.
The Ugandan government is also prioritizing domestic revenue generation. While avoiding costly Eurobond issuances, it is focusing on concessional financing and anticipates that future oil revenues will help reduce a fiscal deficit that has widened to 7.5% of GDP from 5% three years ago. Experts emphasize the need for increased domestic savings, deeper capital markets, and a stronger manufacturing base to fill the gap left by declining Official Development Assistance (ODA), as donor nations redirect funds to domestic priorities, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
“When businesses thrive, tax revenues follow, creating a virtuous cycle of investment and growth,” says Bethuel Karanja, Head of Global Markets at Stanbic Bank Uganda. “Crucially, this growth must be inclusive, supporting women, youth, and farmers – the bank’s key constituencies – and fostering formal entrepreneurship.”
Uganda’s ambitious Tenfold Growth Strategy, aiming to build a $500 billion agro-industrialized economy, highlights the nation’s aspirations. However, successful implementation will require strong public-private partnerships and effective coordination between policymakers, financiers, and producers.
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The Stanbic Bank Uganda Economic Forum, themed “Uganda’s Inflection Point: Competing in a Rewired Economy,” will serve as a platform for these critical discussions. The forum aims to translate strategy into actionable steps, helping Uganda navigate a world of fractured trade and heightened risk, and ultimately convert global challenges into opportunities. The future success of Uganda’s economy hinges not on complacency, but on proactive adaptation and strategic collaboration.
