Opération Aspides

President Donald Trump’s failed military operations at the Strait of Hormuz

The conflict between the United States and Iran, which escalated in April, has centered heavily on the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil is transported through this passage, and Iran has spent decades securing resources to maintain influence over it. Following the onset of the war, the U.S. launched attacks on thousands of targets, yet these operations failed to dismantle Iran’s capacity to control the waterway. While President Donald Trump initially assured the world that the strait was open and under U.S. control, shipping confidence plummeted following attacks on multiple vessels. Since that Tuesday, nearly all maritime traffic through the strait effectively ceased.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ blockade of maritime traffic

The situation remains characterized by conflicting claims and threats. President Trump issued warnings regarding potential attacks on power plants, bridges, and roads if Iran did not open the strait. Conversely, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued directives to ships in the region stating that passage was prohibited. Multiple tankers and vessels were observed turning back according to tracking data. The European Union’s maritime security operation, Aspides, confirmed that vessels received these messages from the IRGC. Steven Erlanger, senior correspondent for diplomacy and foreign policy at the New York Times, stated to NRK that he believes Iran will never relinquish the desire to control the strait.

For more on this story, see Iran met en garde contre modifications des règles du détroit d’Ormuz.

Thina Saltvedt and Jarand Rystad on surging global fuel prices

Economic consequences have been severe. Before the war, approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the strait daily, according to the International Energy Agency. Under the conflict, traffic fell to practically zero due to a double blockade by both Iran and the U.S. This has sent the price of fossil fuels upward, with citizens globally feeling the impact on their personal finances. Thina Saltvedt, chief analyst at Nordea, noted to NRK that it could take months for fuel prices and supply to return to normal. Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy, stated to DN that a long-term blockade could more than double oil prices from the 73 dollars per barrel observed before the weekend, though he characterized such a scenario as unlikely.

This follows our earlier report, Iran attaque deux pétroliers dans détroit d’Ormuz mort marin indien huit blessés.

President Donald Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian’s temporary agreement

Diplomatic shifts occurred on May 6, when reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran were nearing an agreement. According to VG, the proposed deal included points for Iran to pause uranium enrichment, for the U.S. to lift sanctions and release frozen Iranian assets, and for both sides to cease the blockade of shipping. However, skepticism remains high. Ole Gunnar Austvik, professor emeritus in political economy and petroleum economics at the University of Innlandet, cautioned: There is probably no one who really knows what is going to happen based on these types of reports, because we have received so many of them.

By Thursday, oil prices fell following reports of a temporary agreement between the U.S. and Iran to end the war and reopen the strait. Brent oil fell below 78 dollars per barrel, trading at 77.70 dollars for August delivery, a decrease of 2.32 percent, while WTI oil dropped 2.65 percent to 74.74 dollars, according to Trading Economics. This agreement was reportedly signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Despite the deal, Trump issued a stern warning during a press conference, stating: We are going to bomb them to pieces if they break the agreement, as reported by CNBC.

Read also: États-Unis Exigent de l’Iran l’Arrêt Immediate des Tirs dans le Détroit d’Ormuz.

Experts remain divided on the durability of these developments. Robert Næss, investment director at Nordea Asset Management, noted that even with a solution in place, uncertainty is expected to persist. In an earlier development on April 8, President Trump announced a ceasefire involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran. That deal stipulated that the U.S. and Israel would halt attacks against Iran for two weeks in exchange for Iran opening the strait to traffic. Markets reacted to that news with a sharp drop in oil and gas prices, which Saltvedt noted indicated that the market has confidence that there will now be some calmer weeks. However, the subsequent volatility and the need for a credible and lasting agreement, as emphasized by Austvik, remain the primary obstacles to regional stability.