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Trump frappe Kharg : l’Iran et le pétrole sous tension

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Trump Orders Strikes on Iranian Oil Hub, Threatens Further Action

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump announced Friday evening that he authorized strikes targeting Kharg Island, a strategically vital Iranian island responsible for approximately 90% of the nation’s crude oil exports. The strikes, described by Trump as “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East,” mark a significant escalation in tensions following a recent conflict with Iran that began nearly two weeks ago.

Trump revealed the operation via a post on Truth Social, stating that military targets on Kharg Island had been “totally obliterated.” While refraining from targeting the island’s oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency,” Trump warned that he would “immediately reconsider this decision” should Iran interfere with the free passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Kharg Island, located just 15 miles off the Iranian mainland, processes roughly 950 million barrels of crude oil annually and is crucial to the Iranian economy. The strikes come as Tehran has been targeting more than a dozen vessels in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical waterway for global oil supplies—effectively halting traffic and driving up oil prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled above $100 a barrel Friday, a more than 40% increase since the conflict began in late February.

Experts note that a full seizure of Kharg Island, while considered, carries substantial risks. Gregory Brew, an Iran expert with Eurasia Group, explained that while seizing the island could impede Iranian oil exports and provide Trump with a perceived win, Iran possesses alternative export facilities, including a terminal in Jask, east of the Strait of Hormuz.

“They can likely continue to do so, albeit at lower volumes, at least initially,” Brew said. Furthermore, a move on Iranian territory could provoke a “very aggressive” response, endangering U.S. troops.

The Pentagon has responded to the escalating situation by deploying additional troops and warships to the region, including the USS Tripoli and approximately 2,500 Marines, providing Trump with increased military options.

The announcement followed a somewhat awkward exchange during a radio interview Thursday night, where Fox News Radio host Brian Kilmeade questioned Trump about the possibility of seizing Kharg Island. Trump responded with irritation, questioning why Kilmeade would even ask and dismissing the idea as “not high on the list.”

This is not the first time Trump has publicly considered action regarding Kharg Island, with references dating back to 1988.

The strikes on Kharg Island represent a significant gamble, with potentially far-reaching consequences for global energy markets and regional stability. The situation remains fluid, and further developments are expected as the conflict continues.

Foreign Policy originally reported on the analysis from Eurasia Group and the Pentagon troop deployments.

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International

Guerre Iran : Détournement du détroit d’Ormuz et enquêtes américaines

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Iran War Escalates as Strait of Hormuz Becomes Key Battleground, Costs Mount

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has entered a dangerous new phase, with Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil artery, and escalating costs already exceeding $11 billion for the U.S. alone in its first week, according to Pentagon estimates. The conflict, now 13 days old, is marked by uncertainty and shifting objectives from the Trump administration, raising concerns about its potential duration and wider implications.

The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central point of contention, with Iran utilizing it as leverage against the U.S. and its allies. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, stated Thursday that blocking the strait “must undoubtedly continue to be used,” in his first public statement since assuming power. Reports from CNN and Reuters indicate Iran has begun laying mines in the waterway, and multiple oil tankers have reportedly been hit by “projectiles.”

Despite these reports, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have downplayed the threat, with Trump stating Wednesday he didn’t believe Iran had planted mines and Bessent claiming some Iranian-flagged tankers have safely transited the strait. U.S. Central Command reports destroying over 30 Iranian mine-laying ships, but experts caution that countering mines will be challenging, as the U.S. Navy decommissioned its minesweeper vessels in the Middle East last September.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group, explained that Iran possesses a “variety of capabilities” beyond mines, including anti-ship ballistic missiles and drones. He warned that the strait is likely to remain closed for the rest of the month without rapid de-escalation.

The financial strain of the war is significant. The Pentagon has informed Congress that the first week of conflict cost more than $11 billion. This has led to speculation about the U.S. potentially reallocating military resources from other regions, with reports suggesting the movement of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system from South Korea to the Middle East. South Korean officials have expressed opposition to this move, though acknowledge their limited ability to prevent it.

Adding to the complexities, a preliminary Pentagon investigation, as reported by The New York Times, suggests the U.S. military was responsible for a February 28 missile strike on an Iranian elementary school that killed over 175 people, mostly children. The strike reportedly occurred due to outdated targeting information. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not directly addressed the school attack, but alleges Iran has been firing missiles from schools and hospitals. More than 40 Democratic senators have demanded answers and the public release of investigation findings.

Beyond the Middle East, the U.S. continues lethal strikes against alleged drug boats in Latin America, and has launched a joint operation with Ecuador targeting organized crime.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Defense Department is facing a legal challenge from artificial intelligence company Anthropic, which is suing over being declared a supply chain risk. Tech giants Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI, along with former military officials, have publicly backed Anthropic in its legal battle.

Upcoming events to watch include a meeting of European Union energy ministers on March 16, a bilateral visit between U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and an extraordinary session of the International Maritime Organization on the situation in the Middle East on March 18. A meeting between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is scheduled for March 19.

The situation remains fluid and volatile, with the potential for further escalation and significant global repercussions.

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International

Iran : Khamenei menace de bloquer le détroit d’Ormuz et de se venger

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Khamenei Vows Continued Closure of Strait of Hormuz, Escalating Tensions in Middle East

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — In his first public statement since succeeding his father, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed Thursday to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, as a means of pressuring adversaries. The declaration comes amid escalating regional tensions following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February and ongoing military operations by the United States and Israel.

“Iran will not refrain from avenging the blood of its martyrs,” Khamenei said, adding that Tehran will seek compensation from those it deems responsible for his father’s death “or destroy their assets accordingly.”

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already brought maritime passage to a virtual standstill, with Iranian forces targeting commercial shipping vessels. This disruption has injected uncertainty into global energy supply flows, prompting the International Energy Agency to unanimously agree Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves in an attempt to stabilize rising crude costs.

Despite the IEA’s efforts, an Iranian military official warned that the price of oil could reach $200 per barrel. However, Western powers appear less concerned following the reserve release. The European Commission stated Thursday it has no immediate concerns regarding the security of oil supplies, and U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is his priority, even if it means higher crude prices. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The conflict is also taking a financial toll. Pentagon officials told U.S. lawmakers Tuesday that the war has already cost over $11.3 billion in its first six days, excluding operational costs like hardware and personnel.

Escalating attacks by Iranian forces have targeted oil and civilian infrastructure in recent days. On Thursday, a suspected Iranian attack targeted two tankers in an Iraqi port, following strikes on three commercial ships in the Persian Gulf the previous day. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for an assault on the Mayuree Naree, a Thai-flagged bulk carrier, prompting a demand for an apology from Bangkok.

Qatar’s Defense Ministry reported thwarting several missile and drone attacks, while Saudi Arabia’s Defense Ministry said it intercepted two drones heading toward its Shaybah oil field.

The United States and Israel have continued their military operations in response. U.S. Central Command reported striking around 6,000 Iranian targets, including over 60 ships and 30 minelayers. Israel launched fresh attacks on alleged Hezbollah sites in Beirut, prompting the British government to issue a travel advisory urging citizens to leave Lebanon if their presence is not essential.

Amidst the escalating conflict, China’s National People’s Congress approved a new law Thursday promoting “ethnic unity,” a move experts warn could lead to forced assimilation of minority groups. The law mandates Mandarin Chinese in schools and official communications, potentially diluting minority cultures and languages.

Russia’s foreign ministry accused the United Kingdom of supplying Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles used in a strike in Bryansk, alleging British involvement in a “terrorist attack.” Ukraine maintains it targeted a factory producing Russian weapons.

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International

IEA libère 400M barils de pétrole face à la crise iranienne

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Global Oil Prices Surge as Iran Tensions Escalate, IEA Announces Emergency Reserve Release

WASHINGTON (AP) — Global crude oil prices are climbing amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, prompting an unprecedented response from the International Energy Agency (IEA). On Wednesday, the IEA announced its 32 member nations, including the United States, will collectively release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves in an effort to stabilize markets.

The move comes as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transit, has largely ground to a halt following the outbreak of conflict 12 days ago. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait, and its effective closure has ignited uncertainty in energy markets.

“This is the largest-ever release of emergency oil stocks in our agency’s history,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said, adding the distribution aims to “offset the supply lost.” IEA nations hold a combined 1.2 billion barrels of oil in public stocks, plus another 600 million in mandatory commercial inventories – roughly 124 days’ worth of lost supply from the Persian Gulf.

While the IEA didn’t provide a specific timeline for the release, Japan confirmed it will distribute 15 days’ worth of oil from private stockpiles and another 30 days from government reserves starting Monday. This is the IEA’s first coordinated release since 2022, when 182 million barrels were released following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and its sixth major action since the agency’s founding in 1974.

However, the threat to global energy markets remains significant. Iranian officials have warned the U.S. to brace for further disruptions, with Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson for Tehran’s military command, stating, “Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilized.”

Recent attacks on commercial vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz have further fueled concerns. Projectiles struck two ships on Wednesday, and Tehran appeared to take responsibility for an assault on the Thai-flagged cargo ship Mayuree Naree. Global maritime trackers have confirmed at least 13 strikes on vessels in or around the strait since the conflict began.

U.S. Central Command warned Iranian civilians that U.S. forces cannot guarantee the safety of shipping ports in Hormuz, stating that civilian ports used for military operations lose protected status under international law. Iranian military spokesperson Abolfazl Shekarchi responded, threatening that Iranian ports would become legitimate targets if threatened.

Adding to the instability, two Iranian drones targeted Dubai International Airport on Wednesday, wounding four people. Fragments from an intercepted projectile also damaged Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi.

Chile Sworn In New Far-Right President

In separate news, José Antonio Kast was sworn in Wednesday as Chile’s new president, marking the country’s most significant rightward shift since its return to democracy in 1990. Kast, who secured a landslide victory in December against Communist Party candidate Jeannette Jara, campaigned on promises of stricter law enforcement, immigration controls, and traditional family values.

Kast has publicly expressed support for former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. On his first day in office, he is expected to sign agreements with the United States to bolster collaboration on critical minerals and security issues. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and holds roughly one-third of global lithium reserves, positioning it as a key player in the competition between the U.S. and China for influence in Latin America.

North Korea Conducts Missile Tests

Meanwhile, North Korea test-fired strategic cruise missiles from a Choe Hyon-class warship on Tuesday, the second such launch in a week. Leader Kim Jong Un, accompanied by his daughter, oversaw the launch and reiterated the need for a “powerful and reliable nuclear war deterrent.” The tests coincided with joint U.S.-South Korean military drills, which Pyongyang denounced as a “provocative and aggressive war rehearsal.”

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International

Iran : la crise énergétique renforce la position de la Chine ?

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Iran Conflict Sends Energy Markets Reeling, But May Bolster China’s Position

By [Your Name], International Editor, nouvelles-du-monde.com

WASHINGTON – Oil and gas prices have surged following recent strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets, sending ripples of concern through energy markets already sensitive to geopolitical risk. The immediate impact is being felt globally, with rising gasoline prices in the U.S. and renewed pressure on Europe as it continues to recover from the energy shocks stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, analysts suggest the crisis could unexpectedly strengthen China’s strategic position in the long term.

U.S. gasoline prices are now at their highest levels seen during either of former President Donald Trump’s terms, forcing the White House to consider measures to mitigate the political fallout. Natural gas markets have been particularly hard hit, with Qatar – a major supplier accounting for roughly 20 percent of globally traded LNG – temporarily suspending operations after an Iranian drone strike on its export facility. European gas prices have climbed to levels not seen since 2023.

China, the world’s largest importer of both crude oil and liquefied natural gas, initially appears vulnerable. Roughly half of its crude imports and a third of its LNG shipments transit the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway now facing potential disruption. Beijing has already directed its refiners to curtail fuel exports to safeguard domestic supplies.

However, a growing consensus among observers suggests China is better positioned to weather the storm than many anticipate. For over two decades, Beijing has pursued an energy security strategy centered on reducing its reliance on volatile oil and gas markets. A key component of this strategy is a rapid shift towards electrification.

More than 30 percent of China’s final energy consumption now comes from electricity, compared to a global average of just over 20 percent. Over half of all cars sold in China are electric, driven by deliberate government policies focused on both energy security and emissions reduction. The International Energy Agency estimates China has avoided 1.2 million barrels per day of oil demand growth since 2019 and projects peak oil demand in 2027 – two years earlier than previously forecast.

Beyond electrification, China has also prioritized domestic energy production, with coal and renewables dominating its power mix. The country is also building substantial energy stockpiles, holding roughly 1.4 billion barrels in strategic and commercial storage – providing 120 days of import coverage. This contrasts with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is approximately 40 percent smaller than it was a decade ago.

The crisis may also reshape how other nations approach energy security. As reliance on traditional hydrocarbon suppliers appears increasingly uncertain, countries may reassess the risks of dependence on Chinese clean energy technologies, despite concerns about supply chain dominance. China currently accounts for over 80 percent of global manufacturing capacity for solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries.

Furthermore, the U.S. approach to the conflict, undertaken without consulting allies, risks reinforcing perceptions of Washington as a source of geopolitical instability. China, conversely, is positioning itself as a more reliable commercial partner. This could lead to increased hedging among traditional U.S. allies, as evidenced by recent moves by Canada and European nations to strengthen ties with Beijing.

While the immediate shock of the crisis exposes China’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies, it also highlights the success of its long-term strategy to prepare for a world where energy security is inextricably linked to geopolitics. As President Xi Jinping prepares to meet with President Trump, Washington is reportedly considering urging Beijing to shift oil purchases away from Russia and towards U.S. crude. However, China has spent years working to reduce its vulnerability to such pressure.

This crisis may ultimately be remembered as a turning point in the transition towards an “electrostate” era, and in this new landscape, China appears poised to gain a significant advantage.

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International

Venezuela : La réforme pétrolière est-elle un mirage ?

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Venezuela espère attirer les investissements pétroliers après une réforme juridique, mais les perspectives de relance restent incertaines

CARACAS, Venezuela – Le Venezuela a récemment adopté une réforme majeure de sa législation pétrolière, dans une tentative désespérée d’attirer les investissements étrangers et de relancer une industrie en déclin. Cette initiative, saluée par l’administration Trump comme un moyen potentiel de revitaliser l’économie vénézuélienne et de réduire la dépendance de l’Inde au pétrole russe, se heurte à un scepticisme généralisé et à des obstacles considérables.

La réforme, approuvée la semaine dernière, vise à mettre fin à des décennies de “socialisme des ressources” sous les anciens dirigeants Hugo Chávez et Nicolás Maduro, qui ont conduit à la nationalisation des actifs pétroliers et à un effondrement de la production. Le pays, qui détient les plus grandes réserves prouvées de pétrole au monde, espère attirer les compagnies énergétiques internationales en assouplissant les règles relatives aux coentreprises, aux investissements privés et aux redevances.

Cependant, de nombreux experts restent prudents. Graham Kellas, vice-président principal de la recherche fiscale mondiale chez Wood Mackenzie, souligne que la réforme est une “étape importante”, mais que “beaucoup de chemin reste à parcourir avant d’avoir un contrat signable par les entreprises privées, et que les investissements puissent commencer à affluer”. L’histoire du Venezuela est jalonnée d’expropriations d’actifs pétroliers, notamment dans les années 1970 et 2007, ce qui a laissé de nombreuses compagnies méfiantes.

Le PDG d’ExxonMobil, Darren Woods, a qualifié le Venezuela de “non investissable” en janvier, soulignant la nécessité de “protections d’investissement durables” et d’une modification des lois sur les hydrocarbures. Même après la réforme, Woods a insisté sur l’importance d’une transition vers la démocratie pour rétablir la confiance des investisseurs.

L’administration Trump avait initialement envisagé d’utiliser le contrôle de facto de Washington sur l’économie vénézuélienne pour stimuler une renaissance de l’industrie pétrolière et, plus récemment, pour détourner l’Inde du pétrole russe, comme l’a suggéré Donald Trump sur Truth Social. Cependant, ces plans semblent peu susceptibles de se concrétiser à court terme.

L’ironie de la situation réside dans le fait que, alors que le Venezuela cherche à réduire le rôle de l’État dans l’industrie pétrolière, le gouvernement américain s’est positionné comme arbitre, décidant quelles entreprises peuvent opérer au Venezuela et dans quelles conditions. Le Trésor américain a déjà émis deux dérogations aux sanctions limitées concernant le pétrole vénézuélien et envisage d’en émettre une troisième. Ces dérogations permettent aux entreprises américaines de vendre du pétrole vénézuélien sur le marché et d’importer les diluants nécessaires pour rendre le pétrole lourd du Venezuela plus facilement transportable.

La nouvelle loi prévoit de briser le monopole de la compagnie pétrolière nationale, Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA), en permettant aux entreprises privées étrangères de conclure des contrats de partage de production avec le gouvernement. Cela s’apparente à la situation de Chevron, qui opère déjà au Venezuela dans ce cadre. L’objectif est d’augmenter la production de pétrole, actuellement d’environ 900 000 barils par jour, à environ 1,2 million de barils par jour.

Cependant, la structure des redevances et des impôts reste une source d’incertitude. Le Venezuela pourrait imposer des redevances de base “jusqu’à” 30 %, plus une taxe-redevance supplémentaire “jusqu’à” 15 %, sans compter l’impôt sur le revenu. Un taux global de 45 % placerait le Venezuela en tête des pays ayant les taux les plus élevés, selon Kellas.

Luis Pacheco, chercheur associé au Baker Center de l’Université Rice, estime que les premières étapes de la réforme pourraient attirer des entreprises plus petites, mais que les grandes compagnies internationales hésiteront à investir des milliards de dollars sans des changements politiques plus importants et des réformes juridiques plus complètes.

L’espoir de remplacer le pétrole russe sur le marché indien semble également improbable. L’Inde importe actuellement environ 1,3 million de barils de pétrole russe par jour, un chiffre qui a considérablement augmenté depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine. Même dans les scénarios les plus optimistes, la production vénézuélienne ne serait pas suffisante pour compenser cette dépendance, surtout si l’Inde exige des prix du marché pour le pétrole vénézuélien.

La situation souligne la complexité des défis auxquels le Venezuela est confronté pour relancer son industrie pétrolière et rétablir sa position sur le marché mondial de l’énergie. La réforme juridique est un pas dans la bonne direction, mais elle ne garantit pas le succès. La confiance des investisseurs, la stabilité politique et une gouvernance transparente seront essentielles pour attirer les capitaux étrangers nécessaires à une véritable reprise.

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