Uganda’s Elections: A Seventh Term for Museveni Amidst Growing Repression
KAMPALA, Uganda – Yoweri Museveni has secured a seventh consecutive term as President of Uganda, an outcome widely anticipated despite growing concerns over democratic backsliding and escalating repression. The January 15th election, marred by an internet shutdown and allegations of widespread irregularities, has solidified Museveni’s four-decade grip on power, raising questions about the future of political freedom in the East African nation.
The victory, with official results placing Museveni at approximately 71% of the vote, comes as no surprise to observers who have watched the erosion of democratic norms under his leadership. His main challenger, Bobi Wine, garnered around 25%, a drop from his 35% showing in the 2021 election. A mere 52% turnout – over 10 million eligible voters stayed home – further underscores a growing sense of disenfranchisement.
Museveni’s journey to power began with the Bush War in 1986, and initially promised a new era for Uganda. He initially implemented single-party rule, justifying it as necessary for national reconstruction. A 1995 constitution introduced term limits and judicial autonomy, but these safeguards were systematically dismantled. Term limits were removed in 2005 through a constitutional amendment, and an age cap of 75 was abolished in 2017, paving the way for Museveni to continue his rule.
The recent election was preceded by a worrying trend of escalating state violence against opposition figures. The 2021 campaign against Bobi Wine was particularly brutal, with over 100 people killed in protests following Wine’s arrest, according to reports from Democracy in Africa. Veteran opposition leader Kizza Besigye has been arrested or detained over a thousand times throughout his career.
“The environment was ‘relatively peaceful’ compared to 2021, but serious concerns remain about harassment, intimidation and arrests,” noted international observers from the African Union, despite acknowledging the internet blackout hindered their ability to fully document irregularities.
The crackdown extended beyond physical violence. In the lead-up to the election, the Ugandan government suspended five prominent human rights organizations and implemented a nationwide internet shutdown two days before voting, citing the need to prevent disinformation. This blackout effectively silenced independent monitoring efforts and allowed irregularities to go undocumented.
The dismantling of civil society has been a key component of Museveni’s strategy. The abrupt dissolution of USAID funding in early 2025, impacting almost all US-funded Good Governance and Civil Society programs, proved particularly damaging, according to the Center for Global Development. This created a vacuum filled by state propaganda, hindering civic education efforts, especially in rural areas.
Further illustrating the regime’s increasingly authoritarian tendencies, authorities arrested Sarah Bireete, executive director of the Center for Constitutional Governance, without a warrant, holding her for four days in violation of constitutional limits. Museveni himself, in a New Year’s Eve address, explicitly instructed security forces to use more teargas against opposition supporters, labeling them “criminals.”
The situation is further complicated by the rising influence of Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who was promoted to Chief of Defence Forces in 2024. Kainerugaba’s openly boastful comments on social media regarding the torture of political opponents signal a regime increasingly unconcerned with concealing its brutality and raises concerns about a potential hereditary handover of power.
Uganda’s demographic profile – a median age of 17, with 78% of the population under 35 – suggests a growing disconnect between the ruling elite and the aspirations of its youth. While young people have increasingly sought avenues for change, including protests against corruption, they have been met with violence and mass arrests.
The international community faces a difficult balancing act. Uganda remains strategically important, providing troops for regional operations, sheltering millions of refugees, and facilitating foreign investment in its oil sector. This strategic value may explain the relatively muted response from international partners.
The future of Uganda remains uncertain. With avenues for peaceful change increasingly blocked, and a potential succession plan seemingly focused on maintaining the status quo, the country’s young majority faces a stark choice: accept a system that offers limited prospects or confront a security apparatus honed over decades of repression.
Link to Bobi Wine’s X post regarding election irregularities
Link to Amnesty International report on pre-election repression
