Middle East Braces for Protracted Conflict as Regional Tensions Escalate
By Ibrahim al-Marashi and Tanya Goudsouzian
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Across the Arab Gulf, the gleaming skylines of cities like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi now bear the unsettling mark of a region sliding toward a wider conflict. Debris from intercepted missiles serves as a stark reminder that the escalating tensions between Iran and its adversaries are no longer contained, threatening to engulf the entire Middle East in what some analysts are calling a “Great War.”
The current crisis, ignited by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory actions by Tehran, represents a dangerous shift in the dynamics of Middle Eastern conflict. Unlike previous wars in the 20th century – the Arab-Israeli conflicts, the Iran-Iraq War, and the Gulf Wars of 1991 and 2003 – this new phase is characterized by a complex web of proxy actors and asymmetric warfare, blurring traditional battle lines.
“The Gulf states are fully drawn in,” said Tanya Goudsouzian, a journalist specializing in Middle East affairs. “Urban centers have become combat zones, placing civilians directly in harm’s way.”
The shift from state-on-state combat to a fragmented struggle involving militias, armed factions, and non-state actors makes de-escalation increasingly difficult. The October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel, widely attributed to Iranian influence despite a lack of conclusive evidence, exemplifies this new reality. This method of exerting influence through intermediaries, reminiscent of the Lebanese Civil War, allows for deniability while simultaneously fueling regional instability.
The human and economic toll is already immense, stretching from Libya and Yemen to Syria, Iraq, Israel, and Gaza. The World Bank has documented the devastating costs of conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, highlighting the long-term consequences for stability and development.
Adding to the complexity, the conflict is increasingly playing out in the digital realm. Disinformation, propaganda, and deepfakes are spreading rapidly through social media and other online platforms, exacerbating sectarian tensions and obscuring the truth. This “5th generation warfare,” as it’s been termed, extends the battlefield beyond physical borders, complicating responses from civilians, regional leaders, and external powers.
Traditional institutions like the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council are struggling to mediate the conflict, raising questions about their relevance and capacity to address the escalating crisis. Reuters recently reported on the strain placed on the GCC, noting a jumbling of the regional pecking order.
Some analysts fear the current situation could lead to a prolonged period of instability, akin to the aftermath of the 2003 Iraq War, where the initial declaration of “Mission Accomplished” was followed by years of insurgency and the rise of extremist groups like the Islamic State.
U.S. President Donald Trump has predicted the conflict will end within four weeks, but experts caution that such a timeline is overly optimistic. The 1991 Gulf War lasted six weeks, and the 2003 Iraq War concluded in less than a month, yet both conflicts were followed by protracted periods of instability.
Ibrahim al-Marashi, a professor of Middle East History, points to a lack of a clear vision for lasting stability. “Unlike the Paris Peace Conference after World War I, which benefited from a U.S. President genuinely aiming to create a League of Nations, the current constellation offers no such hope,” he said. Some analysts even suggest that regional chaos and disorder may align with certain strategic aims, potentially leading to a fragmented landscape where instability is a calculated feature, rather than a byproduct.
The Elcano Royal Institute, which originally published an analysis of the situation, warns that the Middle East may be witnessing its first “Great War,” a maelstrom that could either entrench divisions for generations or lay the foundation for a new order of coexistence. Tragically, the latter outcome appears increasingly unlikely.
Source: This article was published by Elcano Royal Institute.
