Japon : Élection, Chine et la course aux terres rares

Japan’s ‘Iron Lady’ Secures Landslide Victory Amidst China Tensions, Deep-Sea Mining Push

Tokyo – Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party-Japan Innovation Party coalition secured a resounding victory in Japan’s Lower House election on February 8, 2026, winning a two-thirds “supermajority.” The scale of the win, exceeding pre-election predictions, grants Takaichi’s government the power to override opposition in the Upper House and aggressively pursue its domestic and foreign policy agenda.

The election unfolded against a backdrop of escalating tensions with China, particularly concerning access to critical minerals. Takaichi skillfully leveraged these concerns during the campaign, framing herself as a strong leader capable of safeguarding Japan’s economic security.

The seeds of the current friction were sown following Takaichi’s appointment as Prime Minister on October 21, 2025. Bilateral relations with China began to deteriorate a week later, marked by the dissolution of the 26-year alliance between the LDP and Komeito, Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan and collective self-defense in November 2025, and ultimately, China’s January 6, 2026, ban on exports of dual-use goods – including vital critical minerals – to Japan.

This export ban echoed a similar, unofficial embargo imposed by China in 2010 following a territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. However, Takaichi, a protégé of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, appears determined to avoid the vulnerabilities of the past. She has prioritized reducing Japan’s reliance on Chinese supplies and securing alternative sources.

“Japan needs to take away China’s power to weaponize rare earths,” stated Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, reflecting the government’s resolve.

Takaichi capitalized on the situation by announcing a snap election on January 19, free from the moderating influence of Komeito, which traditionally favors continued engagement with Beijing. Dubbed “Japan’s ‘Iron Lady’” and drawing comparisons to Margaret Thatcher, Takaichi campaigned on a platform of economic and mineral security, refusing to retract her stance on Taiwan despite pressure from China.

A key element of this strategy centers on Minamitori Island, a sparsely populated island in the Pacific Ocean. In the lead-up to the election, the government highlighted the success of exploratory drilling conducted by the deep-sea drilling vessel Chikyū, announcing on February 2 the retrieval of 350 metric tonnes of rare-earth-rich mud from a depth of 6,000 meters. Estimates suggest the seabed around Minamitori Island holds over 16 million tonnes of rare earth reserves, potentially enough to meet global demand for over 700 years.

Japan aims to become the first country to commercially mine the deep-sea floor, with plans to construct a processing facility on Minamitori Island by 2027. However, experts caution that deep-sea mining is not yet commercially viable and that Japan lacks a comprehensive environmental impact assessment framework. While Japan amended its Mining Act in 2022 to facilitate the extraction of seabed minerals within its exclusive economic zone, the Act does not address environmental protection.

Despite these challenges, the Takaichi administration presented the exploration results as a major breakthrough, promising a China-free critical mineral supply chain. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on February 2, Takaichi hailed the success as “a first step toward industrialisation of domestically produced rare earth in Japan” and a means to establish “resilient supply chains.”

While the feasibility of large-scale deep-sea mining remains uncertain – scientists estimate it could take a decade or more to reach full-scale extraction – the election victory solidifies Takaichi’s commitment to diversifying Japan’s supply chain. This policy, however, could potentially escalate tensions with China, particularly around Minamitori Island, where a Chinese aircraft carrier was observed entering Japan’s exclusive economic zone in June 2025.

The coming years will likely see increased attention focused on this remote island, as Japan navigates the complex interplay of economic security, environmental concerns, and geopolitical rivalry in the region.