War in Iran Faces Prolonged Timeline, Casting Doubt on Trump’s Initial Projections
NEW YORK (AP) — Initial projections from the Trump administration suggesting a swift end to the conflict in Iran are increasingly being questioned by U.S. and Israeli officials, who now anticipate a campaign lasting months to dismantle Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and potentially reshape its government. The evolving assessment introduces political complexities for President Trump, whose base previously championed his pledges to end protracted military engagements in the Middle East.
The shift comes as fighting intensifies across Iran, with explosions reported in the capital, and retaliatory strikes targeting Israel and Gulf states, according to reports.
While Trump initially indicated a potential four- to five-week timeline for the operation, officials are now privately acknowledging the possibility of a far longer commitment. One Israeli official, despite adhering to the U.S. president’s publicly stated timeframe, suggested the war “definitely could be longer.” A U.S. official echoed this sentiment, noting that the resistance from remaining elements of the Iranian government necessitates a more extended approach.
The initial optimism regarding a swift regime change is also fading. A set of four U.S. goals for the mission no longer includes altering the Iranian government, though Israel continues to prioritize replacing the current leadership. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long advocated for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
Trump, speaking to reporters, dismissed suggestions that Israel pressured him into launching the attack. “No, I might have forced their hand,” he said, adding that Israel was prepared for conflict and that the U.S. response has been “very, very powerful.”
Experts caution against setting firm deadlines. Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official at the American Enterprise Institute, warned that projecting an end date could allow Iranian leadership to simply wait out the fighting. He pointed to previous conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, where a lack of sustained commitment yielded limited results.
The duration of the conflict will hinge on Iran’s ability to defend its remaining assets and Trump’s willingness to accept a scenario where the Islamic Republic remains in power. Trump has reportedly vacillated between supporting a democratic uprising and pursuing a more limited campaign focused on crippling Iran’s leadership and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians, ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding,’” Trump told Axios.
Israel is reportedly making progress in degrading Iran’s ballistic missile program, exceeding expectations. However, a comprehensive dismantling of the program is expected to take considerable time, according to Patrick Clawson, director of the Iran program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Previous Israeli efforts to set back the program had only achieved temporary results.
The situation is further complicated by the lack of a clear counterpart to Delcy Rodríguez, the acting president of Venezuela following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces in January. Trump has expressed a desire for a similar figure to emerge in Iran, but acknowledged that many potential candidates are deceased.
Veteran diplomat Dennis Ross expressed skepticism that Trump would commit to a months-long campaign, suggesting the president may seek to declare victory at a time of his choosing, regardless of the actual outcome.
