Powell signale un possible assouplissement, les marchés réagissent
Paris – 29 Février 2024 –
Le discours de jerome Powell à Jackson Hole a considérablement influencé les marchés financiers, notamment en augmentant les probabilités d’une baisse des taux d’intérêt de 0,25% en septembre. Cette viewpoint, alimentée par un changement de ton de la Réserve fédérale, a entraîné une hausse des actions technologiques comme Amazon et Tesla. Les investisseurs en obligations semblent satisfaits des niveaux de prix actuels. Cette évolution soulève des questions sur l’avenir de la politique monétaire et son impact sur l’économie globale, ce que nous allons analyser en détail.
Okay,hereS a breakdown of teh key data from the provided text,focusing on market movements and Jerome Powell‘s speech:
key Market Movements:
Tech stocks Rise: Amazon and Tesla saw significant gains. Amazon climbed over 2%, and Tesla jumped around 5%.
Market Optimism: The market reacted positively to Powell’s speech, with investors in stocks and bonds likely pleased with current price levels.
previous Market Weakness: The week started with downward pressure on major market indexes, notably in MegaCap Tech.
Jerome Powell’s Speech at Jackson hole:
Potential Policy Adjustment: Powell indicated that changing economic conditions (“shifting landscape”) might warrant an adjustment to the Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy.
Shifting Risk Balance: He suggested the balance of risks is shifting between the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and price stability.
Factors Influencing the Shift: He cited changes in fiscal, trade, and immigration policies as contributing factors.
Interest Rate Expectations:
Increased Probability of Rate Cut: Expectations for a 0.25% rate cut in September rose dramatically, from around 75% earlier in the week to approximately 91% after powell’s speech (according to CME Fedwatch).
High Bar for No Change: Chris Zaccarelli (Northlight Asset Management) believes it would be challenging for the Fed to hold rates steady for another month.In essence, Powell’s speech was interpreted as dovish (suggesting a willingness to ease monetary policy), leading to a rally in the stock market, particularly in tech stocks, and a significant increase in expectations for a rate cut in September.