Iran’s Missile Range Expansion Raises European Security Concerns
LONDON – Recent Iranian missile tests, including an attack on the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia, have sparked debate over the country’s evolving capabilities and potential reach, prompting concern among European security analysts. While the UK government downplays the immediate threat to British soil, experts warn Iran is demonstrating a capacity to strike further than previously estimated, and may be signaling a willingness to do so.
The attack on Diego Garcia involved the use of a Simorgh space-launch vehicle, a move analysts say suggests Iran has improvised to extend its missile range to approximately 4,000 kilometers. Prior assessments had capped Iran’s arsenal at around 2,000 kilometers, according to Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
“The launches…may have been improvised use of the Simorgh space launch vehicle, which could offer greater range as a ballistic missile,” Bronk explained. One missile failed to reach its target, while another was intercepted by a US destroyer.
While Israel has suggested Iran could now reach targets like London, Paris, or Berlin, the UK’s Housing Secretary Steve Reed dismissed the claim, stating there was “no assessment to substantiate” that Iran could target Britain.
However, Bronk believes the Israeli warning serves a strategic purpose – to encourage wider participation in a potential operation against Iran, which he suggests isn’t progressing as planned. “The messaging of, well, you know, your audience essentially are in the firing line too – therefore, you should all come and help,” he said.
Bronk also noted a potential balancing act by Iran, issuing a tacit warning to European capitals while simultaneously minimizing the likelihood of actually striking European targets, fearing further escalation.
A more immediate concern, according to Bronk, lies in Iran’s network of covert operative cells already positioned across Europe. “The Iranians have plenty of ways to potentially cause more covert trouble with…operative cells in multiple countries in Europe,” he warned, suggesting these cells could target military installations in a manner designed to be deniable and avoid public pressure on European governments.
The UK has already engaged in intercepting Iranian drones in the Middle East and is permitting US strikes from Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford against Iranian targets impacting Gulf shipping. This expanded involvement has prompted calls from opposition parties for a parliamentary vote.
Dr. Sidharth Kaushal, also of RUSI, cautioned that long-range missiles would be inaccurate and would need to traverse heavily defended airspace. Retired NATO commander Sir Richard Shirreff added that Israel has a vested interest in broadening the scope of the conflict.
