Germany Shifts Gears on Foreign Policy, Embraces ‘Principled Realism’ Amidst Global Upheaval

BERLIN – A seismic shift is underway in German foreign policy, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz steers the nation away from decades of prioritizing international law and towards a more pragmatic, power-focused approach. The change, spurred by perceived failures of existing strategies and a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, marks a stark departure from the tenure of former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Merz’s stance became clear in the wake of the recent coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, a move he did not condemn as a violation of international law. Unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, who adhered to the traditional European pattern of expressing concern over the legality of the strikes, Merz instead denounced the Iranian regime and voiced relief at the prospect of its potential downfall. He affirmed Germany’s alignment with the U.S. and Israel’s goal of halting Iran’s nuclear and ballistic armament programs.

“The criteria of international law will have relatively little effect,” Merz stated, a sentiment reflecting a growing disillusionment with the efficacy of appeals and sanctions. “We were not ready to pursue our fundamental interests with military force if necessary.”

This “principled realism,” as some observers are calling it, represents a significant break with Germany’s recent past. Merkel consistently championed the primacy of international law and eschewed military intervention, a position facilitated by the security umbrella provided by the United States and access to affordable Russian energy. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the increasingly unpredictable behavior of the U.S. under President Donald Trump have prompted a reassessment of this approach.

Trump’s questioning of NATO commitments and even suggestions of U.S. interference in European affairs – including a reported consideration of seizing Greenland from Denmark – have eroded trust in the transatlantic alliance. The U.S. President has also ceased direct aid to Ukraine and pursued a conciliatory policy toward the Kremlin.

In response, Germany is dramatically increasing its defense spending, aiming for 3.5 percent of GDP by 2030, a figure Merz has suggested could eventually rise to 5 percent. He recently secured parliamentary approval to issue bonds to finance this expansion, a move that will inject an unprecedented $580 billion into the German military. This represents a stark contrast to the past, when the German army was plagued by equipment shortages and a lack of readiness, with reports of soldiers even training with broomsticks instead of rifles.

This military buildup is already causing unease among some European partners, particularly France and Britain, who fear Germany will dominate the continent’s defense industry. Concerns are mounting that the surge in funding will primarily benefit German arms manufacturers, leaving other European competitors behind.

Alongside the increased military investment, Germany is also exploring ways to bolster its security independently. Chancellor Merz has been in discussions with French President Macron regarding extending France’s nuclear deterrent to its European allies. Macron recently announced a new policy of “forward deterrence,” involving the temporary deployment of French nuclear weapons to other EU countries, potentially creating a new European nuclear umbrella. “To be free, we have to be feared,” Macron declared.

The shift in German policy isn’t without domestic challenges. While polls indicate majority support for increased defense spending, a significant portion of the German population remains reluctant to take up arms in defense of the country. The government has initiated programs to boost military recruitment and is considering the reintroduction of mandatory conscription, a move that could face resistance.

Merz’s position is not secure, facing a challenging election year and a coalition government with limited capacity for sweeping reforms. However, he benefits from the changing geopolitical realities and the actions of key international players. The perceived unreliability of the U.S. and the continued aggression of Russia are forcing a reevaluation of long-held assumptions about European security.