Transatlantic Alliance Under Strain as Ukraine War and China Concerns Dominate Munich Security Conference
MUNICH – The state of Western alliances and the escalating challenges posed by Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s growing assertiveness were central themes at the Munich Security Conference, according to Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute. Farkas, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, shared her insights with The Cipher Brief’s Suzanne Kelly, highlighting a growing sense of unease among European allies regarding the reliability of U.S. commitment.
“For me, that’s the thing that matters most,” Farkas said. “Are we still united? That’s what Europeans and others, even those outside of Europe, especially our Asian allies, are going to be listening for.”
The conference unfolded against a backdrop of continued fighting in Ukraine, raising questions about long-term U.S. support and prompting calls for increased European contributions to collective defense. Farkas echoed a sentiment similar to that of former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, urging European nations to “step up” and shoulder a greater share of the burden. She emphasized that a strong transatlantic alliance remains fundamentally in the U.S. interest, safeguarding its way of life, democracy, security, and economic prosperity.
However, a discernible rift appears to be forming. While working-level cooperation remains consistent, a growing distrust of the United States is evident among European leaders, fueled by what they perceive as inconsistent rhetoric from the current U.S. administration.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, Farkas expressed confidence in Ukraine’s strategic victory, stating, “Russia cannot conquer and rule Ukraine. They’re weak economically and politically.” She stressed the need for sustained pressure on Russia through increased sanctions, but also advocated for expanding sanctions to target China, which she accused of enabling Russia’s war effort through both energy purchases and the provision of crucial dual-use technologies.
Europe’s approach to China is also a source of concern. While acknowledging Japan’s firm stance – maintaining deterrence without seeking common ground – Farkas warned against European leaders’ tendency to engage with Beijing and “hedge their bets.” “China is not their friend,” she cautioned. “China will eat their lunch in a minute, and China is not a democracy.”
Looking ahead, Farkas identified two critical priorities: ensuring Ukraine’s ultimate victory and sovereignty, and deterring China’s increasingly assertive behavior. “We must help Ukraine win and maintain sovereignty, and we must deter China,” she stated. “Those are the defining strategic challenges right now.”
The Munich Security Conference served as a crucial forum for assessing the evolving geopolitical landscape and reaffirming the importance of transatlantic unity in the face of complex and interconnected threats. The discussions underscored the urgent need for a coordinated and resolute response to both the immediate crisis in Ukraine and the long-term challenge posed by a rising China.