Peace Deal Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Could Reshape Caucasus, Bypass Russia
WASHINGTON – A recently signed peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by the United States, holds the potential to dramatically alter the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, offering a path toward stability after decades of conflict and potentially reshaping trade routes that currently rely on Russia.
The agreement, finalized August 8, 2025, at the White House with President Donald Trump hosting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, aims to formally end the long-running dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. While ratification by both nations’ parliaments is still pending, the deal represents a significant departure from a trajectory of bloodshed and animosity.
The core of the agreement centers on Armenia relinquishing its claims to Nagorno-Karabakh, a region historically populated by ethnic Armenians but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. The deal also proposes a new transportation corridor – dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – that would connect Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.
This new route is poised to become a critical trade link, allowing goods and people to move from Central Asia to Europe without transiting Russia or Iran. This shift could significantly diminish Moscow’s influence in the region, where it has historically exerted considerable political control.
“Peace is not made by cautious people… Peace is made by people who are focused on the future,” Vice President J.D. Vance said during a February visit to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, signaling the administration’s commitment to the agreement. During the visit, the U.S. signed a strategic partnership charter with Azerbaijan covering areas from economy and energy to security and defense, and pledged support for Armenia in nuclear energy, computer chips, and drones.
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back centuries, with roots in the shifting geopolitical dynamics of the region under the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. The modern wars, beginning in 1988 as the Soviet Union dissolved, have claimed over 30,000 lives, primarily civilians, and displaced an estimated 400,000 Armenians and 600,000 Azerbaijanis.
The 2020 conflict, which saw Azerbaijan reclaim significant territory with Turkish support, and the subsequent events of 2023, including the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh and the departure of Russian peacekeepers, paved the way for the current negotiations.
However, the path to lasting peace is not without obstacles. Iran has condemned the U.S. role in the TRIPP project, viewing it as an encroachment on its interests. Furthermore, recent allegations by Azerbaijan that Iran launched drone attacks on its territory, including Nakhchivan, a key region in the peace proposal, raise concerns about regional stability. Tehran denies the allegations.
The United States is emphasizing accountability, supporting democratic institutions and the rule of law in its security agreement with Baku. Analysts emphasize the need for continued U.S. stewardship of the development rights for the new corridor and vigilance against any attempts by Russia or Iran to undermine the agreement.
The agreement marks a significant shift in Armenian foreign policy, moving away from its traditional reliance on Russia and toward closer ties with the West and even Turkey. The success of this peace initiative could usher in a new era of cooperation and prosperity for the region, transforming it into a vital trade route and a model for conflict resolution.