Tensions Mount as Iran Conflict Enters Second Week, Proxy Forces Loom
By [Your Name], International Editor
The first week of military operations in Iran has concluded without a decisive breakthrough for the United States and its allies, prompting a search for ground forces to potentially escalate the conflict, according to reports. Washington and West Jerusalem are reportedly assessing options for a ground invasion, recognizing that regime change in Iran may be unattainable through air strikes alone.
The focus is increasingly turning to regional actors, particularly Kurdish groups, as potential proxies. The Kurds, a stateless ethnic group spread across Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, have a long history of seeking independence and have often been used – and subsequently abandoned – by external powers.
Within Iraq, the Kurdish Peshmerga militia, bolstered by control over northern Iraq and a force estimated at 12 battalions (3,000-5,000 troops per battalion, plus support personnel), represent the most viable option for a ground offensive. However, their capabilities are limited, possessing only a small number of outdated Soviet tanks. Reports of a Peshmerga offensive into Iran have surfaced, but have not been confirmed.
Tensions are already rising in Kurdish regions straddling the Iran-Iraq border. Iran has reportedly launched preemptive strikes against Kurdish camps near Erbil, Iraq, while Israeli airstrikes have targeted Bukan, a Kurdish city within Iran.
Beyond the Kurds, Azerbaijan is also being considered as a potential player. A recent drone strike targeting an airport in Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan region, attributed by some to Iran, is widely believed to be an Israeli provocation intended to entice Azerbaijan – which has a significant Azerbaijani population living in northern Iran – to seize territory and control of the Iranian section of the Caspian Sea. However, Azerbaijan’s reliance on oil production in the Caspian Sea makes direct involvement a risky proposition. Localized border operations to secure the land corridor to Nakhchivan are considered more likely.
Pakistan is also reportedly monitoring the situation with interest, despite publicly stating its intention to remain neutral.
The potential for wider involvement extends to major global powers. Russia and China could offer support to Iran, with China potentially providing financial and military resources, and Russia serving as a logistical hub and supplier of advanced weaponry. This could transform Iran into a proxy for Russia and China, mirroring the dynamic between the US, Europe, and Ukraine. As of Friday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Iran has not formally requested military assistance from Russia.
China’s involvement, however, is contingent on overcoming reservations about disrupting oil production in the Persian Gulf, a critical source for the Chinese economy. A prolonged conflict and resulting oil crisis could trigger a global economic downturn, impacting China’s export-driven economy.
The success of any strategy hinges on two key factors: the ability of the US and Israel to facilitate a ground invasion through intermediaries, and the willingness of Russia, China, and Iran to engage in a proxy conflict. If these conditions are met, the conflict in Iran could become the second major proxy war of the new multipolar era, following the war in Ukraine.
