Bangladesh Elections Fuel India-US Tensions as Geopolitical Interests Clash
Dhaka, Bangladesh – As Bangladesh prepares for parliamentary elections on February 12, a complex geopolitical struggle is unfolding, pitting India and the United States on a potential collision course. The election is not merely a domestic affair; it’s become a focal point for regional power dynamics, with both Washington and New Delhi vying for influence and pursuing diverging interests.
The core of the tension lies in differing approaches to key political players within Bangladesh. India is actively working to counter the rising influence of the Jamaat-e-Islami, a conservative Islamist party, viewing it as a security threat with historical ties to Pakistan. New Delhi is simultaneously bolstering support for the Awami League, led by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and attempting to forge a working relationship with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), hoping to create a political landscape that marginalizes the Jamaat.
This strategy is evident in recent actions. Sheikh Hasina, ousted from power in August 2024, used a press conference in New Delhi on January 23rd to launch a scathing attack on the current interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, accusing him of “running an illegal and violent” administration and labeling him a “traitor.” The Dhaka government responded sharply, accusing India of interfering in its internal affairs and undermining bilateral norms by providing Hasina a platform to “incite unrest.”
“She is a fugitive convicted by the International Crimes Tribunal. For India to have allowed it (the presser) was tantamount to undermining bilateral norms, violating sovereignty, and setting a dangerous precedent for future Bangladesh–India relations,” a government statement read.
Simultaneously, India has signaled its support for the BNP, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressing condolences following the death of BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia on X (formerly Twitter), praising her contributions to India-Bangladesh relations. His External Affairs Minister further cemented this outreach by delivering a personal letter from Modi to BNP’s interim chairman Tarique Rahman.
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However, while India seeks to contain the Jamaat, the United States appears to be cautiously engaging with the party. A recent exposé in The Washington Post revealed that US diplomats are actively seeking increased engagement with Jamaat-e-Islami, even exploring outreach to other conservative Islamist groups like Hefazat-e-Islam Bangladesh and Islami Andolan Bangladesh.
During a closed-door meeting with Bangladeshi journalists in December 2025, a US diplomat reportedly stated that Bangladesh has “shifted Islamic” and predicted the Jamaat would achieve unprecedented electoral success. The diplomat, speaking off the record, indicated a willingness to leverage US economic influence – particularly the massive garment industry that relies heavily on US markets – to moderate the party’s policies should it come to power.
“Bangladesh’s entire economy, 20 percent of your exports to the United States, depend on a series of socially liberal clothing chains and clothing brands,” the official reportedly said. “If Bangladesh tells women they can only work five hours, or kicks them out … and imposes Sharia law, there will be no more orders.”
While the US Embassy in Dhaka maintains it does not favor any particular party, the reported outreach has raised concerns in New Delhi. India had already designated the Jamaat-e-Islami’s chapter in Kashmir as an “unlawful group” in 2019 and renewed the designation in 2024.
“India’s biggest fear in Bangladesh for many years has been Jamaat,” explained Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council. “India views the party as being allied with rival Pakistan.”
The diverging US and Indian strategies are further complicated by a broader deterioration in bilateral relations. Tensions have been simmering since President Trump’s second term, with disagreements over trade, Ukraine, Gaza, and other geopolitical issues. The competition over Bangladesh is simply exacerbating existing strains.
The stakes are high. Bangladesh, with a population of over 170 million, is a strategically important nation bordering India and playing an increasingly significant role in regional trade and security. The outcome of the February 12 elections will not only shape the country’s future but also significantly impact the broader geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Analysts predict a tight race, with recent polling data from the US-based International Republican Institute showing Jamaat as the “most liked” party, closely followed by the BNP. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether India and the US can navigate their differences or risk a further escalation of tensions in this vital region.
