Iran’s Regime Shows Resilience Amidst US-Israel Strikes, Future Uncertain
By Amin Saikal
TEHRAN, Iran – Despite a sustained aerial and naval campaign by the United States and Israel, Iran’s Islamic regime has demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience, raising questions about the efficacy of the current strategy and the potential for prolonged instability in the region. The recent killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous senior political and military figures has not derailed the regime’s war efforts, and a period of intensified conflict appears likely.
The stated goal of the US and Israel has been to instigate regime change in Iran, aiming to empower the Iranian people to overthrow the theocratic system, as articulated by President Donald Trump. However, the assumption that military action alone would swiftly dismantle the regime appears to have been overly optimistic.
Following Khamenei’s assassination last Friday, a three-member interim governing council has been established to fulfill his functions until a permanent successor is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, a constitutional body comprised of clerics. This body faces a critical decision: appoint a leader from within the hardline factions, likely continuing Khamenei’s policies, or select a moderate/reformist figure who might initiate political and economic reforms and seek improved foreign relations, including with the US.
Khamenei’s death, while a significant blow, does not guarantee the regime’s collapse. Iran has weathered the deaths of leaders before, smoothly replacing them. The current leadership, encompassing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij paramilitary forces, the military, religious circles, and a vast bureaucracy, remains firmly committed to the regime’s survival.
The conflict has already sparked emotional reactions within Iran and among Shiite communities in other Muslim countries, raising concerns about the potential for the emergence of new violent extremist groups – mirroring organizations like al-Qaeda, Islamic State, and the Taliban. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the opportunity for such groups to gain traction.
While the US and Israel have demonstrated overwhelming firepower, a clear strategy for post-regime change stabilization appears to be lacking. Trump has indicated a willingness to consider “boots on the ground” but has expressed reservations, citing past experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has also shifted the stated US mission to focus on destroying Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities, despite previous claims of success in neutralizing these threats.
Ultimately, the future of Iran rests with the Iranian people. External intervention, while impactful, cannot dictate the outcome. The regime’s survival hinges on its ability to maintain internal cohesion and navigate the complex geopolitical landscape.
Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Australian National University.
