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International

Pétrole : hausse après la chute liée aux tensions Iran-USA

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Oil Prices Climb as Iran War Optimism Wanes

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Oil prices rose Tuesday, with Brent crude regaining the $100 per barrel mark, as skepticism grew regarding a potential de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The price increase reflects ongoing concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies amid the Iran war.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with May delivery climbed more than 3% to $103.04 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for May traded 4.2% higher at $91.82 per barrel. The gains followed a sharp sell-off Monday, when Brent crude fell approximately 11% to around $99 per barrel after briefly topping $112 on Friday.

The initial dip followed a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump on his Truth Social account claiming “very good and productive conversations” with Iran regarding a resolution to hostilities. Trump also stated he had instructed the Department of War to postpone military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

However, Iran refuted Trump’s claims of negotiations, and analysts remain wary.

“Despite the exuberance on Wall Street, oil is well off its lows after Tehran denied conducting any weekend negotiations with Washington,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. He added that the risk of a prolonged conflict remains a key concern for the market.

Repeated attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East have fueled fears of disruptions to both production and transportation. Torres noted that even if a deal is reached, lingering nervousness about potential capacity and transportation issues could keep costs elevated compared to the beginning of the year.

Prior to the outbreak of the war, the Strait of Hormuz handled about 20% of global seaborne oil supplies. Iran had virtually halted flows through the critical waterway but indicated Sunday it would permit safe transit for ships not associated with its “enemies.”

The price fluctuations underscore the sensitivity of the oil market to geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East. The Brent-WTI spread, a key indicator of global energy health, is being closely watched as the situation unfolds.

[CNBC] Oil prices since the start of the year: https://www.cnbc.com/appchart?symbol=%40CL.1&range=YTD&comp=%40LCO.1&type=mountain&embedded=true&$DEVICE$=undefined

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International

Pétrole : hausse des prix après les attaques iraniennes et possible levée des sanctions

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Tensions in the Gulf Ease as U.S. Considers Lifting Sanctions on Iranian Oil

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Oil prices dipped Friday as the United States signaled it may soon remove sanctions on Iranian crude oil currently held in tankers, a move aimed at stabilizing global markets rattled by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The potential easing of restrictions comes after Iran attacked energy facilities in the region following a strike on its South Pars gas field, and its closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures for May delivery fell 0.4% to $108.23 per barrel during early European trading, while West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery dropped 0.6% to $95.56, according to CNBC.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Thursday that Washington is prepared to act to curb soaring prices. “In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that’s on the water, about 140 million barrels,” Bessent told Fox Business Network. He added that releasing the sanctioned crude would help cap prices over the next 10 to 14 days.

The move reflects a growing concern over the economic impact of the conflict. According to the Guardian, Bessent’s announcement came as Washington seeks to curb prices soaring over Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. believes tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will increase before Navy escorts are deployed, Bessent said, as reported by CNBC.

Citi analysts predict Brent and WTI could climb to $120 per barrel in the near term, and potentially $150 in a “bull-case” scenario if disruptions worsen. However, they anticipate de-escalation within four to six weeks, which would allow Brent to fall back to $70–$80 by year-end.

Saudi Arabian oil officials reportedly expect crude prices could surpass $180 a barrel if disruptions persist beyond late April, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is assisting U.S. efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and claimed Iran no longer possesses the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, suggesting a potential for a quicker resolution to the conflict, according to wire reports.

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Nouvelles

Bourse : S&P 500, Nasdaq et Dow en hausse malgré la guerre en Iran

by Elodie Martin - Nouvelles
written by Elodie Martin - Nouvelles

Les marchés boursiers américains ont progressé mardi, poursuivant la dynamique observée la veille, dans un contexte d’évolution de la situation en Iran.

L’indice S&P 500 a gagné 0,3 %, le Nasdaq Composite a grimpé de près de 0,3 % et le Dow Jones Industrial Average a ajouté 92 points, soit 0,2 %.

La volatilité des prix du pétrole et les conséquences du conflit en Iran continuent d’influencer le sentiment des investisseurs. Mardi matin, les prix du pétrole ont augmenté de 2 %, le baril de Brent dépassant la barre des 100 dollars.

Malgré la hausse des prix du pétrole, le secteur de la consommation discrétionnaire de l’indice S&P 500 a enregistré une progression notable de 1 %, tiré par les gains d’Expedia Group et de Booking Holdings. De solides prévisions de revenus de la part des compagnies aériennes Delta, American et JetBlue ont soutenu ces valeurs.

Le secteur de l’énergie a été le plus performant de l’indice, avec une hausse d’environ 1,7 %.

L’évolution des prix du pétrole est liée aux déclarations de l’ancien président Donald Trump, qui a suggéré lundi la mise en place d’une coalition pour protéger le transport maritime dans le détroit d’Ormuz, tout en affirmant que les États-Unis n’avaient pas besoin de l’aide de l’OTAN ou d’autres pays pour assurer cette protection. Trump a déclaré sur son réseau social Truth Social que l’armée américaine avait « décimé » l’armée iranienne et qu’elle n’avait donc plus besoin de l’assistance de l’OTAN.

Ces déclarations ont entraîné un repli des marchés boursiers et une légère hausse des prix du pétrole, les investisseurs espérant la formation d’une coalition.

Les prix du pétrole ont augmenté depuis le début des frappes américano-israéliennes contre l’Iran, en raison des craintes d’une perturbation potentielle de l’approvisionnement énergétique mondial en cas de fermeture prolongée du détroit d’Ormuz.

Les investisseurs surveillent de près l’évolution du conflit, notamment après la mort d’Ali Larijani, responsable de la sécurité iranienne, dans des frappes aériennes, selon le ministre israélien de la Défense, Israel Katz.

Holly Mazzocca, présidente de Bartlett Wealth Management, a souligné lundi que, malgré une économie relativement solide, une inflation maîtrisée et de bons résultats d’entreprises, les risques pour cette croissance étaient croissants. Elle a notamment mis en avant le ralentissement du marché du travail.

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Économie

Hausse des prix du carburant : les compagnies aériennes augmentent les tarifs

by Sophie Bernard - Économie
written by Sophie Bernard - Économie

Hausse des prix du carburant : les compagnies aériennes préparent les passagers à des vols plus chers

HOUSTON, Texas – L’escalade des prix du carburant, conséquence des tensions géopolitiques au Moyen-Orient, se répercute déjà sur les tarifs aériens. Les compagnies aériennes, confrontées à une augmentation de leurs coûts opérationnels, commencent à répercuter ces hausses sur les consommateurs, même si la demande de voyages reste forte.

Depuis les attaques américaines et israéliennes contre l’Iran il y a près de deux semaines, le prix du carburant a grimpé en flèche. Cathay Pacific a annoncé qu’elle doublerait ses suppléments carburant sur les billets à partir du 18 mars. D’autres compagnies, comme Qantas et Scandinavian Airlines, ont également annoncé des augmentations de tarifs pour compenser les coûts accrus. Air New Zealand a même suspendu ses prévisions financières, en attendant une stabilisation des marchés du carburant.

« Si le conflit entraîne une hausse prolongée des coûts du kérosène, la compagnie aérienne pourrait devoir prendre d’autres mesures en matière de prix et ajuster son réseau et son programme en conséquence », a déclaré Air New Zealand.

Les dirigeants des compagnies aériennes américaines doivent présenter leurs résultats aux investisseurs lors de la conférence J.P. Morgan Industrials à Washington, D.C., ce mardi. Les analystes s’attendent à un impact sur les bénéfices, au moins pour le premier trimestre, voire le premier semestre, en fonction de la durée de la flambée des prix du carburant.

Selon UBS, une baisse des bénéfices au premier trimestre semble désormais inévitable. Scott Kirby, PDG de United Airlines, a confirmé la semaine dernière que des hausses de tarifs sont probables. Deux autres dirigeants de compagnies aériennes américaines, souhaitant rester anonymes, ont également souligné la solidité de la demande de voyages, ce qui pourrait donner aux compagnies aériennes un certain pouvoir de fixation des prix.

« Les compagnies aériennes ne résistent jamais à une augmentation des tarifs », a ironisé Scott Keyes, fondateur de Going, une entreprise spécialisée dans les offres de vols.

Que faire pour les consommateurs ?

Keyes conseille aux voyageurs de réserver leurs vols le plus tôt possible, en évitant les billets « basic economy » qui sont souvent non modifiables. Cela permet aux clients de profiter d’éventuelles baisses de prix et de récupérer la différence en crédit.

Le kérosène : un poste de dépenses majeur

Le carburant représente le deuxième poste de dépenses le plus important pour les compagnies aériennes, après les salaires, représentant environ un cinquième, voire plus, des coûts totaux. United Airlines a dépensé 11,4 milliards de dollars en carburant l’année dernière, à un prix moyen de 2,44 dollars le gallon. Mercredi, le prix du kérosène aux États-Unis atteignait 3,78 dollars le gallon.

Jefferies prévoit que l’impact financier le plus important pour les compagnies aériennes se fera sentir dans les 30 à 90 prochains jours, car elles ont déjà réservé des tarifs pour les vols à court terme en supposant un prix du carburant beaucoup plus bas.

Delta Air Lines et United Airlines, grâce à leur clientèle haut de gamme, sont mieux positionnées pour faire face à cette situation. Cependant, la récente augmentation des prix de l’essence pourrait freiner la demande des voyageurs plus sensibles aux prix.

Le prix du kérosène a plus que doublé dans certaines régions depuis les premières attaques américano-israéliennes contre l’Iran le 28 février. Les prix du pétrole ont atteint des sommets de quatre ans après ces attaques, et ont connu de fortes fluctuations depuis, en fonction de l’évolution de la situation.

Le 27 février, le coût du remplissage des réservoirs d’un Boeing 737-800 était d’environ 17 000 dollars, basé sur les prix moyens à New York, Houston, Chicago et Los Angeles. Moins d’une semaine plus tard, le 5 mars, ce coût était passé à plus de 27 000 dollars. Mardi, après les commentaires du président Donald Trump sur une possible fin rapide du conflit, le coût était redescendu à environ 23 000 dollars.

Des mesures d’économie et une capacité limitée

Les compagnies aériennes ont déjà commencé à mettre en œuvre des mesures d’économie, comme la réduction du poids des magazines de bord ou le passage aux manuels numériques pour le personnel de bord.

La capacité aérienne, en particulier vers et depuis le Moyen-Orient, est également limitée en raison des fermetures d’espaces aériens et des annulations de vols. Plus de 46 000 vols ont été annulés vers et depuis la région depuis le début des attaques le 28 février.

Rick Joswick, de S&P Global Energy, souligne que la demande de kérosène est inélastique : « Vous ne pouvez pas priver un aéroport de carburant. Si le coût du kérosène augmente, l’avion ne choisira pas de ne pas voler ce jour-là. »

La plupart des compagnies aériennes américaines ne couvrent plus leurs achats de carburant, ce qui les rend plus vulnérables aux fluctuations des prix.

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International

Trump ordonne le bombardement de Kharg Island en Iran

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Trump Authorizes Strike on Iran’s Kharg Island, Threatens Further Action Over Strait of Hormuz

TEHRAN – U.S. President Donald Trump announced Friday that he ordered a bombing raid targeting military sites on Iran’s Kharg Island, a critical hub for the country’s oil exports. The strike, described by Trump as “one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East,” comes amid escalating tensions and a widening conflict in the region.

“Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed…totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” Trump stated in a post on Truth Social. He notably added that he had “chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island,” but warned that any interference with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would prompt a reconsideration of that decision.

The president later asserted that Iran’s ambitions to dominate the Middle East and “completely obliterating Israel” were now “DEAD!”

Speaking to reporters before departing for Florida, Trump indicated the military campaign would continue “as long as necessary,” offering no specific timeline. When pressed on the possibility of “unconditional surrender,” he stated the U.S. had achieved “a position of dominance that nobody has seen before.”

Kharg Island, located in the Persian Gulf, handles approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, with a loading capacity of around 7 million barrels per day. Analysts have long considered a move against the island to be high-risk, potentially triggering a significant escalation and disruption to global oil markets.

Brent crude oil futures closed above $100 per barrel Friday for the second consecutive day, surging more than 40% since the start of the conflict.

The Trump administration has previously discussed the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, according to a recent report by Axios. While officials anticipate oil prices will fall once “Operation Epic Fury” concludes, the potential for further disruption remains high.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not ruled out deploying ground forces to Iran, but stated the U.S. does not intend to become “bogged down” in a prolonged conflict.

The strikes on Kharg Island follow nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led attacks against Iranian targets.

Reporting contributed by CNBC’s Riya Bhattacharjee.

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International

Guerre Iran-Israël : le pétrole flirte avec les 100 $

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Oil Prices Remain Elevated as Iran Conflict Enters Third Week, Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Brent crude oil hovered near $100 a barrel Friday as the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran stretched into its third week, with no immediate end in sight. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil shipping route, is fueling market anxieties and raising concerns about a potential global economic shock.

Brent futures were down 1.13% at $99.32 per barrel at 7:49 a.m. ET, after surpassing $100 on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 2.07% to $93.75 per barrel.

The surge in oil prices follows a dramatic climb last week, with Brent rising by more than 9% and WTI marking its best week since 1983. The previous week saw the largest weekly gain in oil prices since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

The situation escalated overnight when former U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that a resolution to the conflict wasn’t imminent, stating the U.S. possesses “unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time.” He urged followers to “watch what happens” to the Iranian regime.

Trump reportedly told G7 leaders earlier this week that Iran was “about to surrender,” according to Axios. However, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, countered with a vow to continue fighting, delivered via state television.

Several foreign ships in or near the Strait of Hormuz have been struck by ammunition this week, exacerbating fears of a prolonged war and its potential impact on the global economy.

Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s military command, warned on Wednesday, “Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilised,” Reuters reported.

Despite an unprecedented release of 400 million barrels of oil from the International Energy Agency’s emergency reserves and the temporary lifting of some sanctions on Russian exports by the White House, oil prices remain elevated.

Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau noted growing investor nervousness, despite an initial expectation of a short-lived conflict. “Investors still believe in the Trump put, hence global equities are not down as much as in past oil shocks,” Cau said. “But nervousness is growing by the day and the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed the more stagflationary markets will turn. Watch central banks next week amid hawkish repricing in rates.”

Amjad Bseisu, CEO of British petroleum production company EnQuest, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” that the oil market has “never seen something of this magnitude before.” He warned that each day of delay results in another 20 million barrels removed from the market, with continuing repercussions.

Bseisu drew parallels to the Arab embargo of the 1970s, which led to a quadrupling of oil prices. “Then we saw quadrupling of prices, and I think we’ve seen prices here come up 50% but I do think this is going to be quite a long run,” he said.

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International

États-Unis : Autorisation temporaire d’achat de pétrole russe bloqué en mer

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States has authorized the temporary purchase of Russian oil already on ships at sea, a move aimed at stabilizing global energy markets rattled by conflict in West Asia involving Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the measure Thursday, describing it as a “narrowly tailored, short-term” solution.

The decision comes as oil prices have experienced significant volatility since the start of the Iran war, briefly nearing $120 a barrel earlier this week. Global benchmark Brent crude closed just above $100 per barrel Thursday, following vows from Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

According to CNBC, approximately 124 million barrels of Russian-origin oil are currently afloat across 30 locations worldwide, representing roughly five to six days of global supply as of March 12.

Bessent stated the temporary increase in oil prices represents a short-term disruption that will ultimately benefit the U.S. economy. He also emphasized that the measure is not expected to provide a substantial financial windfall to the Russian government, as most of Moscow’s energy revenue is generated from taxes levied at the point of extraction.

The Treasury Department outlined in a notice that the exemption applies to Russian crude products loaded onto ships on or before 12:01 a.m. Eastern time, with purchases permitted until April 11 at the same time.

The U.S. also granted a 30-day waiver to India last week, allowing the country to continue purchasing Russian crude. Bessent reiterated that this waiver, like the broader authorization, is not intended to significantly benefit Russia, as it pertains only to oil already in transit.

“It was unfortunate that Russia will benefit financially from this move, but we hope that it will be [for] a micro period,” Bessent said in a recent podcast interview. He explained the waiver was granted because “the Russian barrels are on the water, and it is a quick source for the Indian refineries.”

The move comes against a backdrop of existing sanctions imposed by the G7 and the European Union on Russian oil following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, including a price cap of $44.1 per barrel. The EU has also committed to phasing out all remaining oil imports from Russia by the end of 2027.

The U.S. previously banned imports of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal in 2022 under the Biden administration.

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International

Pétrole : prix en hausse après les tensions Iran-Israël

by Omar Benali International
written by Omar Benali International

Oil Prices Surge as Middle East Tensions Escalate

By [Your Name], International Editor, nouvelles-du-monde.com

Oil prices jumped to a five-month high Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies. Brent crude futures climbed 4.5% to $89.23 a barrel by 6:58 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 6.3% to $86.06, levels not seen since April 2024.

The price surge follows reports of retaliatory attacks between Iran and Israel, and warnings from Qatar that the conflict could lead to a significant reduction in oil exports from the Gulf region. Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that crude prices could reach $150 a barrel in the coming weeks if oil tankers are unable to transit the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route. He suggested that Gulf exporters may be forced to declare force majeure – a clause absolving them of contractual obligations due to unforeseen circumstances – in the coming days.

“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days that this continues,” al-Kaabi said. “All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure.”

The situation is already impacting energy markets. The conflict, now in its seventh day, is bringing traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill, disrupting energy production.

While the immediate impact is higher prices, some analysts suggest the longer-term effect could be deflationary for the U.S. Atakan Bakiskan, chief U.S. economist at Berenberg, explained to CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe that higher energy prices reduce consumer purchasing power, potentially curbing demand for other goods and ultimately lowering core inflation.

The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. has already risen nearly 27 cents in the week leading up to Thursday, reaching $3.25, according to data from AAA.

The U.S. government has taken steps to mitigate potential disruptions. A 30-day waiver was issued to India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, allowing it to resume purchases of Russian oil, despite previous 25% tariffs imposed on such imports. Reuters reported that the U.S. Treasury is also considering measures to curb energy price spikes, including potential interventions in the oil futures market.

Crude prices are on track for their largest weekly gain since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, highlighting the sensitivity of global energy markets to geopolitical instability.

Embedded CNBC Chart: Crude oil prices

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