Iran War Shifts to Endurance Test as Arsenal Dwindles, Nuclear Program Gains Leverage
By [Your Name], Chief International Correspondent, nouvelles-du-monde.com
TEHRAN – As the conflict with Israel and the United States enters its second week, Iran is adapting to a new reality: a diminished capacity for large-scale missile attacks and a growing reliance on asymmetric warfare tactics, including a vast drone arsenal and the potential for escalation through its nuclear program. While not “disarmed,” as some assessments suggest, Iran’s ability to sustain intensive missile barrages has been significantly curtailed, forcing a shift in strategy, according to analysts.
The war’s early phase saw Iran launch attacks targeting early warning radars and command infrastructure with precision, a capability U.S. officials attribute to intelligence support from Russia. Moscow has reportedly been providing targeting information, including locations of U.S. warships and aircraft, and imagery from its satellite constellation. This assistance has been linked to recent Iranian strikes, including an attack on a CIA station within the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and a strike that killed six U.S. service members in Kuwait.
However, Russia’s ability to provide substantial military aid is limited by its own ongoing war in Ukraine. MI6 assessments indicate Russian arms exports have effectively halted, with production lines fully committed to the Ukrainian front. While elevated oil prices, partially driven by Middle East instability, benefit the Russian economy, direct military intervention would strain already stretched resources. Russia’s support has thus become largely rhetorical, focused on intelligence sharing.
China’s role is similarly constrained. While Iranian crude accounts for 13 percent of China’s oil imports, Beijing is wary of jeopardizing its relationships in the Gulf and escalating tensions with Washington, particularly as it navigates increasing pressure regarding Taiwan. Chinese energy companies are actively seeking alternative oil sources in Russia and other Gulf nations.
This isolation is pushing Iran to leverage its nuclear program as a key bargaining chip. Western intelligence agencies report accelerated enrichment activities and renewed weaponization research. Experts disagree on the timeline for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but there’s a consensus that the program’s increasing prominence is tied to the regime’s survival.
“The pattern fits a long-standing approach,” explains Dr. Andreas Krieg of King’s College London. “Move closer to the threshold, protect stockpiles and facilities, compress breakout timelines, and keep ambiguity high so that opponents face deterrence without Tehran crossing a line that would trigger overwhelming retaliation.”
Beyond missiles, Iran’s strength lies in its drone arsenal. Estimates range from 10,000 to 80,000 Shahed drones in storage. The economic advantage is stark: interceptors cost exponentially more than the $20,000-$50,000 price tag of a Shahed-136 drone. The UAE, for example, reportedly spent $20 to $28 to intercept every $1 drone that entered its airspace. Russia has reportedly established a factory capable of producing 310 drones per month.
However, Iran’s ability to sustain drone attacks hinges on protecting launch sites from continuous bombardment.
The conflict is also exacerbating a critical shortage of interceptor missiles for the U.S. and its allies. American THAAD interceptor stocks were depleted by 25 percent last June, and replenishment is not expected until 2027. This “magazine contest,” as Krieg describes it, favors Iran, which can exploit the interceptor shortage by using low-cost drones and decoys to trigger expensive countermeasures.
The war’s duration remains uncertain. President Trump initially projected a conflict lasting 4 to 5 weeks, but that timeline is contingent on factors beyond either side’s control. Iran must protect its manufacturing sites while the U.S. grapples with dwindling interceptor supplies and mounting domestic pressure.
As the conflict evolves, Iran may increasingly rely on asymmetric tactics, including harassing oil shipping in the Persian Gulf with limpet mines. The situation underscores the potential for a protracted conflict, where Iran’s ability to endure, rather than its outright military strength, may prove decisive.