Trump Administration’s Plan to Arm Kurdish Groups Risks Regional Instability, Analysts Warn
WASHINGTON – A proposal by the Trump administration to arm Kurdish forces in Iraq and Iran to counter the Iranian regime is facing mounting criticism from foreign policy experts, who warn it could backfire, inflaming regional tensions and inadvertently strengthening Tehran. The plan, revealed earlier this week, involves providing support to Kurdish groups positioned along the border, with the aim of destabilizing Iran.
The idea rests on the premise that Iran’s multi-ethnic composition and existing Kurdish grievances could be exploited. However, analysts argue this approach mirrors unsuccessful tactics employed during the 1979 revolution, when attempts to rally ethnic minorities against the nascent Islamic Republic ultimately bolstered the regime and solidified the power of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“This gambit risks producing the opposite of its intended effect,” said Albert B. Wolf, a global fellow at Habib University in Karachi, in an analysis. “Internally, by handing the regime’s hardliners a nationalist rallying cry, and externally by spreading secessionist anxiety through every multi-ethnic state on Iran’s periphery.”
Concerns are particularly acute regarding the potential impact on neighboring countries. Turkey, already grappling with its own Kurdish separatist movement, views the prospect of a U.S.-backed Kurdish force with alarm. Iraqi officials have reportedly likened the plan to the CIA’s support of Afghan jihadis in the 1980s, fearing it could destabilize the region.
“Turkey cannot support an operation that empowers allies in its own Kurdish separatist movement,” Wolf noted. “Iraq cannot permit its territory to be used as a launching ground without fracturing its domestic politics.”
Pakistan also has significant concerns, as instability in Iran could exacerbate existing tensions in its Balochistan province, which shares an insurgent ecosystem with Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan. The United Nations has cautioned that Iranian instability could trigger large-scale population movements into Balochistan, with nearly 1,000 Pakistani nationals already crossing the border in recent days due to security concerns.
The plan also faces skepticism regarding its practical effectiveness. Reports indicate the CIA has only provided small arms to Kurdish forces, numbering in the hundreds to low thousands. Given that Kurds constitute roughly 10 percent of Iran’s population, the incursion is unlikely to pose a significant threat to the regime, but large enough to provoke a nationalist response.
According to Barbara Walter’s research on civil war and self-determination, governments facing multiple ethnic challenges cannot afford to appear to be negotiating under military pressure. Iran has already demonstrated its understanding of this dynamic, preemptively striking Iranian Kurdish positions in Iraqi Kurdistan before any incursion began, signaling a swift and severe response to any coordination with external powers.
Experts suggest the plan could inadvertently hand Tehran a strategic advantage, allowing it to portray itself as a defender of Iranian sovereignty and rally support against perceived foreign interference. The administration should abandon the plan, analysts say, before it further complicates the regional landscape and undermines U.S. interests.
The Washington Post previously reported on Trump’s calls to Kurdish leaders to aid U.S. efforts in Iran. NBC News also reported on Trump officials considering arming Kurdish opposition against Iran. Al Jazeera reported on Thursday that Tehran was striking “anti-Iran separatist forces” in Iraq.