Uganda’s Besigye Faces Political Eclipse After Election Setback
KAMPALA, Uganda – Kizza Besigye, once the towering figure of Uganda’s opposition, is confronting a stark reality after his newly formed People’s Front for Transition (PFF) secured only two parliamentary seats in recent elections. The results have ignited a debate over whether the veteran opposition leader’s influence has waned, and what the future holds for Uganda’s political landscape.
For nearly two decades, Besigye challenged the 38-year rule of President Yoweri Museveni, galvanizing supporters with a message of defiance and accountability. He ran for president four times, consistently presenting a formidable challenge to the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). His rallies were legendary, drawing massive crowds and resonating with Ugandans frustrated by corruption and limited opportunities.
However, the recent parliamentary elections painted a dramatically different picture. The PFF’s meager gains – seats in Gulu City and Hoima City – represent a significant blow to Besigye’s political standing. The results were particularly disheartening in Kigezi, Besigye’s home region, which overwhelmingly voted for the NRM. Similar trends were observed in Buganda, Teso, and Rwenzori regions, once strongholds of support for Besigye’s former party, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).
“The numbers tell a story sharper than any metaphor,” said political analyst Sarah Bireete, of the Centre for Constitutional Governance in Kampala. “Two seats out of a parliament of over 500 is a devastating outcome for a party founded by a man who once commanded stadium-filling rallies.”
The PFF’s struggles were compounded by the loss of key party officials, including Ssemujju Nganda Ibrahim, a prominent opposition voice, and Doreen Nyanjura, a rising young leader.
Besigye himself was in prison on treason charges during the campaign, a situation some believed would generate sympathy votes. However, that strategy failed to materialize. While Uganda has a history of rallying around political prisoners, voters appeared unmoved by Besigye’s incarceration.
“Ugandan voters, it appears, were not persuaded by the narrative of persecution,” said Bireete. “They seem to be prioritizing stability and are looking for solutions to immediate economic challenges.” Uganda’s unemployment rate currently stands at 8.4% (Uganda Bureau of Statistics, 2024), and inflation remains a concern for many.
The shift in voter sentiment raises questions about the future of Uganda’s opposition. Some analysts suggest the political landscape has become more fragmented, with new parties and younger leaders emerging to challenge the established order.
“The opposition is no longer a two-horse race,” explained Dr. Fred Muhumuza, an economist and political commentator. “Voters have more choices, and nostalgia alone is not enough to win elections.”
The PFF had considered nominating Besigye for the presidency while he was imprisoned, hoping to capitalize on his symbolic value. However, the party ultimately decided against it.
Besigye’s supporters maintain that his imprisonment is politically motivated, alleging a long-standing personal feud between him and President Museveni. His wife, Winnie Byanyima, has echoed these sentiments. However, these claims failed to translate into electoral success.
Despite the recent setbacks, Besigye’s legacy as a champion of democracy in Uganda remains significant. He has inspired generations of activists and played a crucial role in pushing for political reforms.
Whether he can regain his former influence remains to be seen. As one Ugandan proverb notes, “The river that forgets its source dries up.” The PFF faces a critical juncture, needing to reconnect with its base and offer a compelling vision for the future.
The outcome of these elections signals a potential turning point in Ugandan politics, marking the end of an era and the beginning of a new one. The question now is whether Besigye can adapt to this changing landscape or whether his long political journey has reached its conclusion.