Tigray on Edge: Ethiopia’s Region Braces for Renewed Conflict, Economic Hardship
Mekele, Ethiopia – A tense calm has settled over Ethiopia’s Tigray region, but beneath the surface, fears of a return to war are mounting, threatening to unravel a fragile peace and exacerbate a deepening economic crisis. Residents are bracing for the worst, recalling the brutal conflict that ended with a peace deal in November 2022.
Gebreegziabher Berehe, a tour guide in Mekele, embodies the growing anxiety. “If war arises again, I think the situation will be even more severe than before,” he said, noting his bookings have completely dried up. ATMs in the regional capital are reportedly empty, pushing Berehe and others to consider leaving a country they can no longer afford to live in.
The current unease stems from a complex web of accusations. Tigray’s rulers allege Ethiopian federal authorities are violating the peace agreement through drone strikes. Ethiopia, in turn, accuses Eritrea of mobilizing and funding armed groups within Tigray, with whom it shares a border. A particularly alarming scenario involves a potential alliance between Eritrea and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the governing group in Tigray, turning them against Ethiopian forces.
The previous conflict, which pitted Ethiopian government troops and Eritrean forces against the TPLF, was marked by widespread allegations of sexual violence and the deliberate use of starvation as a weapon of war. The potential for a repeat of such atrocities is fueling the desire among many Mekele residents to flee while they still can, remembering the communications blackouts and travel restrictions imposed during the earlier fighting.
Adding to the instability is Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s assertive push to regain Red Sea access for landlocked Ethiopia, a goal that involves Eritrea. Abiy recently stated that Ethiopia and the Red Sea “cannot remain separated forever,” a sentiment dismissed as “delusional malaise” by Eritrean government spokesperson Yemane Gebremeskel.
Eritrea, fearing a military strike on its port of Assab, has been warming relations with Tigray’s leaders, despite denying any formal alliance. This has prompted Ethiopia to begin calling up its reserve forces.
The renewed tensions are already impacting daily life. Ethiopian Airlines canceled flights to Tigray in late January following clashes in the Tselemti district, resuming service only on February 3. Supply chain disruptions are hitting farmers particularly hard. Johannes Tesfay, a farmer north of Mekele, expressed his desperation, stating there is “no fuel for my irrigation pumps, there’s no fertilizer and there’s barely any transportation for buyers to bring the produce to market.”
International calls for restraint have been issued by the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, which has advised its citizens against travel to the region.
The situation in Tigray underscores the fragility of peace in Ethiopia, a nation Abiy Ahmed has sought to portray as a rising power. However, his leadership has been challenged by multiple conflicts in recent years, raising concerns about the country’s stability and future.
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